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Intuitive Machines Inc.

Recommendation: Speculative Buy

Entry Date Symbol Recommendation Entry Price (USD) Target 1 (USD) Target 2 (USD) Holding Duration Position Status Return(%)*
3 Jul, 25 LUNR Speculative Buy USD 10.86 USD 11.4 USD 12.05 8 days Closed 12.52%

*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.

Fundamentals

  • Previous Close 12.25
  • Market Cap275.87M
  • Volume7038973
  • P/E Ratio11.16
  • Dividend Yield-%
  • EBITDA-53.89700M
  • Revenue TTM79.52M
  • Revenue Per Share TTM4.51
  • Gross Profit TTM 0.00000M
  • Diluted EPS TTM0.46

Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).

Company Overview

Intuitive Machines, Inc. designs, manufactures, and operates space products and services in the United States. Its space systems and space infrastructure enable scientific and human exploration and utilization of lunar resources to support sustainable human presence on the moon. The company offers lunar access services, such µNova, lunar surface rover services, fixed lunar surface services, lunar orbit delivery services, rideshare delivery services to lunar orbit, as well as content sales and marketing sponsorships; and orbital services, including satellite delivery and rideshare, satellite servicing and refueling, space station servicing, satellite repositioning, and orbital debris removal. It also provides lunar data services, comprising Lunar data network, lunar south pole and far-side coverage, lunar positioning services, data relay, and data storage/caching. In addition, the company offers propulsion systems and navigation systems; engineering services contracts; lunar mobility vehicles, such as rovers and drones; power infrastructure that includes fission surface power; and human habitation systems. It serves its products to the U.S. government, commercial, and international customers. Intuitive Machines, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Key Positives

Cash Reserves: The company ended Q1 with a robust cash position of USD 373.3 million, enhancing its liquidity and financial flexibility

Revenue Growth: Q1 2025 revenue rose to USD 62.5 million, marking a 14% increase from Q4 2024

Key Negatives

High Capital Expenditure: Q1 FY25 capex amounted to USD 6.1 million, which could pressure future free cash flows if not managed alongside program revenues

Gross Margin Still Low: Despite progress, gross margin remains modest at 11%, suggesting room for improvement in operational efficiency.

 

Key Investment Risks

Intuitive Machines' heavy reliance on government contracts, especially with NASA, exposes it to material revenue volatility due to shifting federal priorities or potential funding delays

Recommendation Summary

Technical Summary

Entry Price Support* Target 1** Target 2**
10.86 10.0 11.4 12.05

Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt

*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.

**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.

Key Reasons for Speculative Buy

  • Financial and Strategic Progress in Q1 2025: Intuitive Machines, Inc. (Nasdaq: LUNR), a leading provider of space technology and infrastructure services, reported strong financial and operational performance for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025. The company posted $62.5 million in revenue during the quarter, representing a 14% increase from the previous quarter. This growth was fueled by key program advancements across CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services), Lunar Terrain Vehicle Services (LTVS), and Near Space Network Services (NSNS). The company also achieved a gross margin of 11%, amounting to $6.7 million, marking its third consecutive quarter of positive gross margin.
  • Technological and Programmatic Advancements: In Q1, Intuitive Machines completed several strategic milestones. Notably, the company finalized the preliminary design review for its LTVS program in May, incorporating astronaut feedback and enhanced capabilities for autonomous navigation. This positions the company favorably ahead of NASA’s anticipated request for proposals in 2025. Moreover, the company was awarded a NextSTEP 2 contract by NASA to support the Moon to Mars initiative, focusing on advanced lunar surface logistics, including cargo handling and mobility.
  • Historic Lunar Landing and Future Lunar Missions: The company successfully executed its second lunar landing mission on the Moon’s south pole—the southernmost lunar landing in recorded history. Additionally, it completed payload testing for three Jet Propulsion Laboratory-designed rovers to be deployed on the upcoming IM-3 lunar mission. Scheduled for the first half of 2026, IM-3 will benefit from operational lessons learned during the IM-2 mission, further enhancing mission efficiency and reliability.
  • Expansion into Broader Space Initiatives: Further diversifying its portfolio, Intuitive Machines progressed on the JETSON program, which is funded by the Air Force Research Laboratory. This initiative, focused on low-power nuclear electric propulsion, is designed to enable stealth capabilities for future satellites. As the exclusive contractor for this program, the company anticipates the option for follow-on phases to be exercised later this year. Additionally, the company secured a $10 million grant from the Texas Space Commission to develop an Earth reentry vehicle and microgravity lab, aligning with future Moon and Mars sample return missions.
  • Strong Liquidity and Cash Flow Performance: Intuitive Machines demonstrated solid financial health with positive operating cash flow of $19.4 million and capital expenditures of $6.1 million, resulting in free cash flow of $13.3 million for the quarter. This performance was largely attributable to milestone-based payment timing and efficient program execution. As of the end of Q1, the company held $373.3 million in cash, bolstered by the completion of a warrant redemption initiative that has streamlined its capital structure and significantly reduced derivative-related overhang.
  • Outlook and Strategic Market Diversification: Looking ahead, Intuitive Machines reaffirmed its full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $250 to $300 million. The company projects achieving a positive run-rate adjusted EBITDA by year-end and expects to report positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026. CEO Steve Altemus emphasized that shifts in NASA’s strategic direction and the federal government’s evolving approach to technology acquisition provide substantial growth opportunities. The company plans to leverage its operational record to expand into National Security Space and other non-lunar markets, thereby positioning itself as a broader space infrastructure and data services provider.

As per the above-mentioned price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘Speculative Buy’ rating has been given to Intuitive Machines, Inc (NASDAQ: LUNR) at the current market price of USD 10.86 as of July 03,2025 at 08:30 AM PDT.

Key Financials in Pictures

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Change in Cash

Total Operating Cash

Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).

Peer Comparison

Sector: Industrials Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Company Change (USD) Price (USD) Trailing PE (x) Forward PE (x) Price Sales TTM (x) Price to Book Value (x) Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x)
LUNR
Intuitive Machines Inc. 		0.18 1.47% 12.43 11.16 - 3.26 - 3.75 17.26
BA
The Boeing Company		 -2.265 0.98% 228.74 - 294.12 1.68 - 2.25 111.56
EADSY
Airbus Group NV		 0.25 0.46% 54.10 27.76 21.51 1.93 7.21 1.79 13.93
EADSF
Airbus Group SE		 2.11 0.99% 215.80 27.24 21.28 1.91 7.14 1.79 13.93
RTX
Raytheon Technologies Corp		 -0.07 0.05% 151.43 38.65 15.77 1.77 1.69 2.22 16.02

Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).

Disclosures:

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Related Risk: This report may be looked at from a high-risk perspective and a recommendation is provided for a short duration. This report is solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.

 

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is July 03,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

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