Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar, 26 | EXE | Buy | USD 113.92 | USD 120.0 | USD 126.0 | 7 days | Closed |
8.71%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Expand Energy Corporation operates as an independent natural gas production company in the United States. The company engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It holds interests in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania; the Marcellus and Utica Shales in Ohio and West Virginia; and the Haynesville and Bossier Shales in Louisiana and Texas. Expand Energy Corporation was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation and changed its name to Expand Energy Corporation in October 2024. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
Operating Cash Flow Strength: FY25 operating cash flow rose to USD 4,575 million versus USD 1,565 million in FY24, highlighting improved cash generation and operational efficiency
Earnings Turnaround: FY25 net income stood at USD 1,819 million compared to a net loss of USD 714 million in FY24, indicating a strong recovery in profitability
Sharp Increase in Operating Expenses: FY25 total operating expenses increased to USD 9,653 million compared to USD 5,038 million in FY24, reflecting higher scale, integration costs, and increased activity levels
Rising Gathering, Processing and Transportation Costs: FY25 GP&T expenses increased to USD 2,376 million compared to USD 1,035 million in FY24, highlighting higher midstream costs associated with increased production volumes
Expand Energy’s key investment risk lies in its high sensitivity to natural gas price volatility, where fluctuations in commodity prices, combined with elevated capital intensity and midstream costs, could materially impact cash flows, profitability, and capital allocation flexibility
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 113.92 | 104.0 | 120.0 | 126.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Revenue Expansion Driven by Scale and Commodity Realizations: During FY25, Expand Energy reported a sharp increase in total revenues and other income, rising to USD 12,124 million in FY25 compared to USD 4,235 million in FY24, reflecting a nearly threefold expansion. This growth was primarily supported by higher production volumes, improved commodity realizations, and increased marketing activity, demonstrating the benefits of scale following the merger integration.
Earnings Recovery and Profitability Improvement: The company delivered a significant turnaround in profitability, reporting net income of USD 1,819 million in FY25 compared to a net loss of USD 714 million in FY24. This improvement was driven by higher operating income, which increased to USD 2,471 million in FY25 from an operating loss of USD 803 million in FY24, indicating strong operating leverage and improved cost absorption.
Strong Operating Cash Flow Generation: Expand Energy generated robust operating cash flows of USD 4,575 million in FY25, significantly higher than USD 1,565 million in FY24. This increase reflects improved earnings quality, disciplined cost management, and favorable working capital movements, strengthening internal funding capacity for capital expenditures and shareholder returns.
Production Growth and Operational Scale: Operationally, the company achieved production of approximately 7.18 Bcfe/d in FY25, establishing itself as the largest natural gas producer in North America. The production profile was predominantly gas-weighted at approximately 92%, supported by strong performance across key basins including Haynesville and Appalachia, reflecting successful integration and asset optimization.
Cost Efficiency and Margin Expansion Initiatives: Expand Energy demonstrated notable operational efficiencies, particularly in the Haynesville basin, where breakeven costs improved by approximately 15% due to enhanced capital efficiency, vertical integration, and drilling improvements. These initiatives contributed to margin resilience despite commodity price volatility.
Balance Sheet Strengthening and Deleveraging Progress: The company made meaningful progress in strengthening its balance sheet, reducing gross debt by approximately USD 660 million during FY25 and approximately USD 1.25 billion since the merger close. This deleveraging reflects a disciplined capital allocation approach and focus on financial flexibility.
Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation Discipline: Expand Energy returned approximately USD 865 million to shareholders during FY25 through dividends and share repurchases. This reflects a balanced capital allocation strategy, combining shareholder distributions with continued investment in growth and debt reduction.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given to Expand Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: EXE) at the closing market price of USD 113.92, as on Mar 25, 2026
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Energy Industry: Oil & Gas E&P
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation |
-0.48 0.55% | 86.98 | 12.45 | 9.89 | 1.95 | 1.24 | 2.25 | 4.98 |
| COP ConocoPhillips |
-3.47 3.12% | 107.74 | 18.36 | 12.53 | 2.44 | 2.20 | 2.69 | 6.19 |
| CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Ltd |
-1.37 3.23% | 41.05 | 11.56 | 12.72 | 2.39 | 2.85 | 3.22 | 6.50 |
| EOG EOG Resources Inc |
-3.27 2.45% | 129.98 | 9.09 | 8.98 | 3.01 | 2.57 | 2.97 | 5.16 |
| PEXNY PTT Exploration & Production |
- -% | 8.21 | 25.79 | 24.51 | 5.92 | 3.66 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on March 26, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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