Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (CAD) | Target 1 (CAD) | Target 2 (CAD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 May, 26 | TFPM | Buy | CAD 44.49 | CAD 47.25 | CAD 49.0 | 5 days | Closed |
10.27%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States. The company has a portfolio of streams and royalties providing exposure to copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, lithium, and zinc. The company was founded in 2016 and is based in Toronto, Canada.
Higher Pretax ROA: 6.0% in Q1 2026 vs 2.8% in Q1 2025
Higher Net Margin: 79.5% in Q1 2026 vs 55.3% in Q1 2025
Higher Leverage Ratio: 1.03x in Q1 2026 vs 1.02x in Q1 2025
Lower Aseet to Equity Ratio: 1.03x in Q1 2026 vs 1.52x of Industry Median
Regulatory risks, Trade tariffs, Inflationary pressures, Lower cash flows, etc
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44.49 | 41.25 | 47.25 | 49.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Decent Record Financial Performance: TFPM delivered a record Q1 2026, supported by higher GEOs, decent precious metal prices, and contributions from its diversified royalty and streaming portfolio. Revenue increased sharply to USD 147 mn, while operating cash flow rose to USD 113.3 mn. Net earnings more than doubled YoY, highlighting the scalability and high-margin nature of the royalty model. The company also maintained an impressive 93% asset margin, reinforcing its decent cash generation capability.
Decent Liquidity Supports Future Deals: Triple Flag ended the quarter with over USD 1.1 bn in available liquidity, giving the company substantial flexibility to pursue new royalty and streaming acquisitions. Management highlighted an active deal pipeline while maintaining disciplined capital allocation. The royalty model combined with decent balance sheet strength positions the company well to capitalize on future mining opportunities during commodity cycles.
Shareholder Returns Remain Attractive: Triple Flag continued rewarding shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. The company declared a quarterly dividend of USD 0.0575 per share and renewed its NCIB program allowing buybacks of up to 5% of outstanding shares. The combination of dividends, buybacks, and growth investments demonstrates balanced capital allocation discipline.
Outlook: Triple Flag remains firmly on track to achieve 2026 guidance of 95,000 - 105,000 GEOs and continues to target 140,000 - 150,000 GEOs by 2030. Growth is expected to be supported by Northparkes expansion initiatives, Hope Bay’s potential construction decision, Eskay Creek restart, Koné production ramp-up, and multiple new development projects progressing toward production. Management also expects continued deal activity supported by more than USD 1.1 bn in liquidity.
Considering the expected valuation upside, Northparkes expansion upside, multiple development projects, decent liquidity, scalable model, Gold price leverage, royalty business stability, future production visibility, exploration upside, and key business risks, a 'Buy’ recommendation has been given on the stock at the last closing price of CAD 44.49, as on May 06, 2026
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Other Precious Metals & Mining
| Company | Change (CAD) | Price (CAD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TFPM Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp |
1.37 3.55% | 39.92 | 28.88 | 26.25 | 24.87 | 3.62 | 18.93 | 20.83 |
| CGG China Gold International Resources |
2.67 10.59% | 27.84 | 19.17 | 10.47 | 9.40 | 4.17 | 7.26 | 12.82 |
| PPTA Perpetua Resources Corp |
1.39 5.82% | 25.29 | - | 1000.00 | - | 7.80 | -29.7643 | |
| ABRA AbraSilver Resource Corp. |
0.70 4.92% | 14.94 | - | 476.19 | 2.77 | 32.60 | 0.05 | -5.6249 |
| SLS Solaris Resources Inc |
0.57 5.67% | 10.62 | - | - | - | 15.94 | -17.5974 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on May 7, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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