Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jun, 26 | ASTH | Buy | USD 41.2 | USD 43.3 | USD 45.5 | 6 days | Closed |
10.44%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Astrana Health, Inc., a healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans. Its physician network consists of primary care physicians, specialist physicians and extenders, and hospitalists. The company serves patients primarily covered by private or public insurance, such as Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization; and non-insured patients. The company was formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Astrana Health, Inc. in February 2024. Astrana Health, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.
Increase in Adjusted EBITDA: Increased to USD 66.3 Mn in Q1FY26 vs USD 36.4 Mn in Q1FY25.
Increase in Total Revenue: Increased to USD 965.1 Mn in Q1FY26 vs USD 620.4 Mn in Q1FY25.
Increase in Interest Expense: Increased to USD 16.1 Mn in Q1FY26 vs USD 7.3 Mn in Q1FY25
Increase in Cost of Services: Increased to USD 859.4 Mn in Q1FY26 vs USD 549.1 Mn in Q1FY25
Astrana Health remains exposed to medical cost inflation, reimbursement changes, execution risks associated with expanding full-risk contracts, acquisition integration challenges, and evolving regulatory requirements within value-based healthcare
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41.2 | 37.0 | 43.3 | 45.5 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Revenue Expansion Driven by Value-Based Care Growth: Astrana Health delivered a strong start to Q1FY26, supported by continued expansion across its physician-centric, AI-enabled value-based care platform. Total revenue increased 56% YoY to USD 965.1 million, driven by growth in Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement businesses, while increasing adoption of full-risk arrangements strengthened recurring revenue visibility and operating scale. The company also expanded Medicare Advantage membership in Texas and continued serving approximately 1.55 million patients through its integrated provider network.
Profitability Improved Through Operating Leverage and AI Integration: The company significantly enhanced profitability during the quarter through disciplined medical cost management, operating leverage, and broader deployment of proprietary AI-enabled workflow tools. Adjusted EBITDA increased 82% YoY to USD 66.3 million, while adjusted EPS advanced 76% to USD 0.74. General and administrative efficiency also improved as AI-enabled automation contributed to a 70-basis-point reduction in G&A expenses as a percentage of revenue, supporting scalable earnings growth.
Full-Risk Strategy Strengthens Long-Term Business Model: Astrana continued executing its transition toward higher-value full-risk contracts, enhancing financial accountability and long-term unit economics. Approximately 80% of Care Partners capitation revenue and nearly 40% of consolidated membership were under full-risk arrangements during Q1FY26, with management expecting full-risk revenue to reach approximately 81% by year-end. This strategy supports better alignment between patient outcomes, medical cost management, and sustainable profitability.
Strong Cash Generation and Financial Position: Cash generation strengthened considerably during the quarter, providing additional flexibility for growth investments and balance sheet improvement. Operating cash flow increased more than fourfold to USD 68.1 million, while free cash flow rose 372% YoY to USD 64.1 million. The company also continued deleveraging ahead of schedule, reducing net leverage to approximately 2.3x while maintaining a healthy liquidity position and reaffirming FY2026 financial guidance.
Positive Outlook Supported by Scalable Healthcare Platform: Astrana reaffirmed its FY2026 guidance, reflecting management's confidence in sustained execution. The company expects FY2026 revenue between USD 3.8 billion and USD 4.1 billion, Adjusted EBITDA between USD 250 million and USD 280 million, and free cash flow between USD 105 million and USD 132.5 million. Continued AI integration, expanding provider networks, and increasing full-risk participation position the company for long-term value creation.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given to Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTH) at the closing market price of USD 41.2, as on 23 June 2026
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Healthcare Industry: Medical Care Facilities
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTH Astrana Health Inc |
0.23 0.52% | 44.78 | 37.23 | 23.04 | 0.56 | 1.68 | 0.64 | 11.21 |
| HCA HCA Healthcare, Inc. |
-0.84 0.23% | 369.58 | 13.19 | 13.66 | 1.13 | 293.44 | 1.77 | 8.22 |
| FSNUY Fresenius SE & Co KGaA ADR |
0.17 1.38% | 12.50 | 16.87 | 9.44 | 0.42 | 0.78 | 0.79 | 5.37 |
| JDHIY JD Health International Inc |
- -% | 4.91 | 62.50 | 35.97 | 0.30 | 2.32 | 0.16 | 3.90 |
| JDHIF JD Health International Inc |
- -% | 5.85 | 57.75 | 32.68 | 0.29 | 2.11 | 0.16 | 3.90 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on June 24, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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