Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr, 25 | NMRK | Buy | USD 11.2 | USD 11.76 | USD 12.25 | 17 days | Closed |
6.96%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Newmark Group, Inc. provides commercial real estate services in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers capital markets services consisting of investment sales and commercial mortgage brokerage; landlord or agency representation leasing; valuation and advisory; property management; commercial real estate technology platform and capabilities; business rates services for the United Kingdom; due diligence, consulting, and other advisory services; GSEs and the Federal Housing Administration lending services comprising multifamily lending and loan servicing; asset management services; and flexible workspace solutions for owners. It also provides tenant representation leasing; and global corporate services consisting of workplace and occupancy strategy, energy and sustainability services, technology, project management, real estate and lease administration, and facilities management. The company provides its services to commercial real estate tenants, investors, owners, occupiers, and developers; lenders; small and medium size businesses; and multi-national corporations. The company was formerly known as Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Capital Group and changed its name to Newmark Group, Inc. in October 2017. Newmark Group, Inc. was founded in 1929 and is based in New York, New York. Newmark Group, Inc. operates is a subsidiary of Cantor Fitzgerald, L.P.
Shareholder Returns: Newmark repurchased 18.6 million shares/units for $224.9 million in 2024, helping limit share dilution to just 3.6% for the year
Revenue Growth: Q4 2024 revenues grew 18.8% year-over-year to $888.3 million, and full-year revenues increased 11.5% to $2.75 billion
Equity Decline: Total equity declined slightly by $26.5 million from 2023 to $1.54 billion, despite strong profitability, due mainly to shareholder payouts
Increased Debt: Corporate debt increased by approximately $86.6 million to $670.7 million year-over-year, driven by investments and shareholder returns
Newmark’s future growth could be at risk if a prolonged commercial real estate downturn delays leasing and capital markets recovery, impacting its ability to meet its $630 million 2026 Adjusted EBITDA target
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1 | Target 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.2 | 10.2 | 11.76 | 12.25 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
Highlights of Consolidated Results: Newmark CEO Barry Gosin highlighted strong double-digit revenue growth across all major business lines, with Management and Servicing up 21%, Capital Markets up 20%, and Leasing up 15%. Capital Markets outperformed the broader industry significantly. Excluding prior-year Signature transactions, volumes surged dramatically across Mortgage Brokerage, GSE/FHA origination, and Investment Sales. Gosin remains optimistic for 2025 growth and reaffirmed Newmark’s 2026 Adjusted EBITDA target of at least $630 million.
Newmark posted total revenues of $888.3 million for Q4 2024, an 18.8% increase year-over-year, and $2.75 billion for the full year, up 11.5%. GAAP net income for diluted shares rose 24.3% in Q4 and 43.8% for the year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 10.1% for the quarter and 11.8% for the year. Notably, 2023 results had a boost from Signature-related transactions and a legal settlement, making the 2024 performance even stronger on a comparable basis.
Recent Newmark Highlights: Newmark achieved record revenues of over $1.1 billion from Management Services, Servicing, and Other businesses in 2024, moving toward its $2 billion target. It posted an all-time high $9.2 billion in industrial transaction volume, driven largely by demand for data centers supporting AI expansion. Major recent deals included a $2.3 billion data center loan for the Stargate Project in Texas, emphasizing Newmark’s leadership in the sector.
Revenue Analysis: Organic growth drove Newmark’s revenue gains, with total revenue up 18.8% in Q4. Management Services, Servicing, and Other revenues rose by 21.1%, the sixth consecutive quarter of strong growth. Leasing revenues grew 15.1%, led by robust office leasing. Capital Markets fees grew 20%, bolstered by huge gains in mortgage brokerage, GSE/FHA originations, and investment sales, significantly outpacing broader market growth rates.
Consolidated Expenses: Expenses grew in line with revenue growth, with total GAAP expenses up 15.8% in Q4 and 10.1% for the year. Compensation costs rose due to higher commission-based revenues and servicing business expansion. Non-compensation expenses were impacted by higher pass-through and warehouse interest costs but remained well-managed. Adjusted Earnings expenses grew more slowly than revenues, showing operating leverage benefits.
Taxes and Noncontrolling Interest: Newmark’s effective tax rate for Adjusted Earnings was 13.9% in Q4 and 14.1% for FY 2024, consistent with prior guidance. Taxes and net income attributable to noncontrolling interests rose modestly in line with improved profitability. The tax rate declined slightly compared to the prior year, reflecting favorable geographic and business mix.
Consolidated Share Count: Fully diluted share count rose slightly by 1.3% in Q4 and 3.6% for FY 2024, consistent with Newmark’s goal of limiting dilution to 2% annually. Share repurchases helped manage dilution, with 18.6 million shares and units repurchased in 2024 for $224.9 million. RSU vesting accelerated due to stock price appreciation but did not involve issuing new shares.
Select Balance Sheet Data: Cash and cash equivalents increased to $197.7 million, while corporate debt rose to $670.7 million as Newmark invested in talent and returned $284.2 million to shareholders. Total equity slightly declined to $1.54 billion. The company's net leverage remained low at 1.1x, demonstrating a strong balance sheet supporting future growth.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on Newmark Group, Inc (NASDAQ: NMRK) at the closing market price of USD 11.20, as on April 24, 2025.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Real Estate Industry: Real Estate Services
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMRK Newmark Group Inc |
0.02 0.16% | 12.51 | 30.47 | 5.74 | 1.04 | 1.62 | 1.46 | 12.12 |
| MSGNF Man Sang International Limited |
- -% | 0.21 | - | - | 844.75 | 3.95 | 3.76 | -1.3608 |
| CBRE CBRE Group Inc Class A |
0.67 0.47% | 143.18 | 44.43 | 25.91 | 1.22 | 4.85 | 1.40 | 24.55 |
| CSGP CoStar Group Inc |
0.70 0.86% | 82.12 | 115.64 | 227.27 | 15.03 | 5.03 | 13.36 | 84.12 |
| CLNXF Cellnex Telecom S.A |
- -% | 38.77 | - | 208.33 | 6.31 | 1.67 | 10.46 | 15.58 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is April 24,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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