Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Feb, 26 | PBF | Buy | USD 33.71 | USD 35.5 | USD 37.3 | 10 days | Closed |
13.41%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
PBF Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in refining and supplying petroleum products. The company operates in two segments, Refining and Logistics. It produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals, and asphalt, as well as unbranded transportation fuels, petrochemical feedstocks, blending components, and other petroleum products from crude oil. The company sells its products in Northeast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast of the United States, as well as in other regions of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It also offers various rail, truck, and marine terminaling services, as well as pipeline transportation and storage services. PBF Energy Inc. was founded in 2008 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey.
Strong Insurance Recoveries: FY25 gain on insurance recoveries totaled USD 832.5 million, whereas FY24 recorded no comparable recovery
Expansion in Gross Refining Margin (Ex-Special Items): FY25 gross refining margin excluding special items increased to USD 8.77 per barrel from USD 7.89 per barrel in FY24
Lower Throughput Volumes: FY25 crude and feedstocks throughput averaged 832.9 thousand bpd versus 904.0 thousand bpd in FY24, reflecting a reduction of 71.1 thousand bpd
Revenue Decline: FY25 revenues decreased to USD 29,332.3 million from USD 33,115.3 million in FY24, marking a decline of USD 3,783.0 million
PBF Energy’s investment profile remains highly sensitive to refining margin volatility, operational disruptions (including unplanned refinery outages), regulatory exposure to renewable fuel standards and RIN pricing, and elevated leverage amid cyclical commodity market fluctuations
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33.71 | 30.5 | 35.5 | 37.3 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Revenue Performance and Market Environment: During the year ended December 31, 2025, PBF Energy reported total revenues of USD 29,332.3 million. The topline performance reflected a softer crude oil pricing environment compared to the prior year, alongside lower system-wide throughput volumes. Average benchmark crude prices declined year-over-year, which influenced product realizations and overall revenue generation. Despite these headwinds, the company benefited from relatively supportive crack spreads in certain regions during the latter part of the year.
Earnings Profile and Operational Improvement: For FY25, the company reported a loss from operations of USD 54.3 million, representing a substantial improvement compared with the prior year’s operating performance. Net loss attributable to PBF Energy Inc. stockholders totaled USD 158.5 million. The improvement in operating metrics was supported by stronger refining margins, gains on insurance recoveries associated with the Martinez refinery incident, and progress under the Refinery Business Improvement (RBI) initiative. The fourth quarter marked a return to quarterly profitability, signaling stabilization in operating conditions.
Refining Margins and Cost Structure: Gross refining margin for FY25 stood at USD 7.72 per barrel of throughput, while gross refining margin excluding special items improved to USD 8.77 per barrel. However, consolidated gross margin per barrel of throughput remained negative at USD (1.87), reflecting the impact of inventory adjustments and operational disruptions. Refinery operating expense averaged USD 8.38 per barrel of throughput during the year, indicating cost pressures linked to maintenance activity and downtime, particularly at the West Coast refining system.
Throughput and Segmental Operations: Total crude oil and feedstocks throughput averaged 832.9 thousand barrels per day (bpd) in FY25, compared with higher levels in the prior year, primarily due to downtime at the Martinez refinery following the February 2025 fire incident. West Coast operations were notably affected, while the East Coast and Gulf Coast systems demonstrated comparatively stable performance. Total production averaged 838.5 thousand bpd during the year, reflecting operational recovery toward the latter part of FY25.
Balance Sheet Position and Capital Structure: As of December 31, 2025, PBF Energy maintained cash and cash equivalents of USD 527.9 million. Total debt increased to USD 2,148.3 million, resulting in net debt of USD 1,620.4 million. The total debt-to-capitalization ratio stood at 28%, while the net debt-to-capitalization ratio was 23%, indicating higher leverage compared with the prior year. Despite the elevated debt levels, the company continued its shareholder return policy, declaring total dividends of USD 1.10 per share during FY25.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given to PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE: PBF) at the current market price of USD 33.71, as on Feb 19,2026 at 9:20 am PST
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Energy Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBF PBF Energy Inc |
-0.48 1.27% | 37.29 | 2.10 | 8.56 | 0.14 | 0.82 | 0.14 | 1.26 |
| PSX Phillips 66 |
-1.03 0.62% | 166.14 | 8.10 | 9.57 | 0.39 | 1.91 | 0.50 | 5.71 |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum Corp |
-1.7 0.69% | 242.91 | 5.69 | 11.07 | 0.38 | 2.26 | 0.49 | 3.55 |
| VLO Valero Energy Corporation |
-3.47 1.45% | 236.30 | 4.54 | 9.21 | 0.31 | 1.74 | 0.34 | 2.87 |
| NTOIF Neste Oyj |
- -% | 30.84 | 16.56 | 10.27 | 1.22 | 3.18 | 1.31 | 16.26 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on February 19, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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