Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Feb, 26 | NVAX | Buy | USD 11.19 | USD 11.75 | USD 12.5 | Same day | Closed |
10.63%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, that promotes improved health by discovering, developing, and commercializing vaccines to protect against serious infectious diseases. It offers vaccine platform that combines a recombinant protein approach, nanoparticle technology, and its patented Matrix-M adjuvant to enhance the immune response. It focuses on urgent health challenges, which is evaluating vaccines for COVID-19, influenza, and COVID-19 influenza combination. The company is commercializing a COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373 under the brand names of Nuvaxovid, Covovax, and Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine, adjuvanted for adult and adolescent populations as a primary series and for both homologous and heterologous booster indications. It is also developing R21/Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine. Novavax, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
Turnaround to Net Profitability: Q4 FY25 net income was USD 18 million versus a net loss of USD 81 million in Q4 FY24
Surge in Licensing & Milestone Revenue: Q4 FY25 licensing, royalties and other revenue rose to USD 108 million versus USD 29 million in Q4 FY24
Elevated Cost of Sales: Q4 FY25 cost of sales remained substantial at USD 22 million versus USD 37 million in Q4 FY24
Reduced Direct Commercial Revenue Contribution: In Q4 FY25, product sales accounted for only USD 39 million of total USD 147 million revenue, compared to USD 59 million of USD 88 million in Q4 FY24
Novavax remains highly dependent on milestone-based partnership revenue and regulatory progress of partnered vaccine programs, exposing earnings visibility to timing variability, regulatory approvals, and sustained commercial demand for COVID-19 and combination vaccines
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.19 | 10.0 | 11.75 | 12.5 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Robust Top-Line Expansion Driven by Partnering Revenue: During Q4 FY25, Novavax reported total revenue of USD 147 million, representing a 67% year-over-year increase compared to USD 88 million in Q4 FY24. The improvement was primarily attributable to higher licensing, royalties, and milestone revenue, particularly under its Sanofi collaboration. For full-year FY25, total revenue reached USD 1,123 million, reflecting a 65% YoY increase from USD 682 million in FY24.
Shift in Revenue Mix Toward Licensing and Milestones: Product sales declined to USD 39 million in Q4 FY25 from USD 59 million in Q4 FY24, largely due to lower Nuvaxovid commercial sales. However, licensing, royalties, and other revenue increased significantly to USD 108 million in Q4 FY25 versus USD 29 million in Q4 FY24, driven by USD 50 million in Sanofi milestone payments and USD 28 million in R&D reimbursements. This underscores the company’s transition toward a partnership-driven revenue model.
Disciplined Cost Optimization and Expense Rationalization: Novavax demonstrated substantial operating leverage in Q4 FY25, with combined GAAP R&D and SG&A expenses declining to USD 110 million, down 40% YoY from USD 183 million. On a non-GAAP basis, combined expenses declined 53% YoY to USD 82 million. This reflects the company’s strategic restructuring and cost containment initiatives implemented over the past two years.
Return to Profitability in the Quarter: The company generated net income of USD 18 million in Q4 FY25, compared to a net loss of USD 81 million in Q4 FY24. Income from operations improved to USD 14 million, versus an operating loss of USD 131 million in the prior-year quarter. The profitability turnaround was primarily supported by milestone revenue recognition and reduced operating expenditures.
Strengthened Liquidity Position and Extended Runway: As of December 31, 2025, Novavax reported combined cash and accounts receivable of USD 857 million, including USD 751 million in cash. Additionally, the company secured USD 80 million in non-dilutive capital in Q1 FY26, including a USD 30 million upfront payment from Pfizer . Management estimates the cash runway extends into 2028.
Operational Progress Through Strategic Partnerships: Operationally, the company expanded its collaboration footprint. The Sanofi partnership contributed materially to Q4 revenue, while Pfizer entered into a Matrix-M licensing agreement involving a USD 30 million upfront payment and potential milestone payments of up to USD 250 million per product. These developments reinforce Novavax’s asset-light, royalty-driven business model.
Pipeline Advancement and Platform Expansion: The company continues advancing its Matrix-M adjuvant platform and pipeline programs, including C. diff, RSV combinations, and influenza-related programs. The strategy focuses on generating clinical data to support additional partnering opportunities while maintaining a lean internal cost structure.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given to Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) at the closing market price of USD 11.19, as on Feb 26, 2026.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Healthcare Industry: Biotechnology
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVAX Novavax Inc |
-0.37 3.89% | 9.13 | - | 7.92 | 1.59 | 49.52 | 0.79 | -0.534 |
| NVO Novo Nordisk A/S |
-0.33 0.76% | 43.19 | 41.58 | 31.15 | 2.13 | 32.99 | 2.11 | 4.70 |
| NONOF Novo Nordisk A/S |
- -% | 43.40 | 41.06 | 31.25 | 2.08 | 33.11 | 2.11 | 4.70 |
| VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc |
-7.36 1.60% | 451.63 | 29.67 | 24.33 | 10.38 | 5.83 | 9.33 | 20.00 |
| REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc |
2.01 0.33% | 609.94 | 29.07 | 20.12 | 7.57 | 3.82 | 6.95 | 19.42 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on February 27, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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