Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Mar, 26 | HMY | Buy | USD 22.75 | USD 24.0 | USD 25.5 | 1 day | Closed |
12.09%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australasia. The company explores for gold, uranium, silver, and copper deposits. It has eight underground operations in the Witwatersrand Basin; the Kraaipan Greenstone Belt; and various surface source operations in South Africa. In addition, the company owns interests in the Hidden Valley, an open-pit gold and silver mine; and the Wafi-Golpu project located in Morobe Province in Papua New Guinea. Further, it holds interest in Rosby and Eva Copper Project located in Queensland, Australia. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is based in Randfontein, South Africa.
Significant Earnings Expansion: Basic earnings per share increased to 2,313 South African cents in FY25 from 1,386 South African cents in FY24, reflecting growth of 67%.
Record Free Cash Flow Generation: Adjusted free cash flow increased to R11,142 million in FY25 compared with R7,252 million in FY24, representing growth of 54% year over year
Higher Capital Expenditure: Capital expenditure increased to R10,998 million in FY25 as the company invested in expansion projects and operational infrastructure
Decline in Gold Production: Gold production declined to 46,023 kilograms in FY25 from 48,578 kilograms in FY24 due to operational disruptions and safety-related stoppages
Harmony’s financial performance remains exposed to fluctuations in gold prices, rising operating costs, safety-related operational disruptions, and execution risks associated with large capital investment projects and international expansion initiatives
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.75 | 20.0 | 24.0 | 25.5 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Revenue Growth Supported by Higher Gold Prices: Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited delivered strong revenue growth during FY25 as favorable commodity pricing and consistent operational execution supported the company’s financial performance. Group revenue increased to R73,896 million in FY25 from R61,379 million in FY24, reflecting growth of 20% year over year. The improvement was primarily driven by higher realised gold prices, with the average gold price received increasing to R1,529,358 per kilogram in FY25 compared with R1,201,653 per kilogram in FY24. The stronger pricing environment, combined with stable operational output across key mining assets, significantly strengthened the company’s revenue base.
Production Performance and Operational Efficiency: During FY25, the company maintained stable operational output despite several operational challenges across its asset portfolio. Total gold production declined modestly to 46,023 kilograms in FY25 from 48,578 kilograms in FY24, reflecting a decrease of approximately 5% primarily attributable to safety-related stoppages and adverse weather conditions that affected some mining operations. Despite the slight decline in overall production volumes, underground operational efficiency improved as recovered grades at South African underground operations increased to 6.27 grams per tonne in FY25 from 6.11 grams per tonne in FY24, supported by strong performance from high-grade assets such as Mponeng.
Record Cash Flow Generation: Harmony generated record operating cash flows during FY25 as higher commodity prices and improved operational margins supported profitability. Adjusted free cash flow increased significantly to R11,142 million in FY25 compared with R7,252 million in FY24, representing growth of 54% year over year. Free cash flow margins also improved to 16% in FY25 from 12% in FY24 as the company benefited from stronger realised gold prices and higher-grade production across several operations. The improvement highlights the strong cash-generating capacity of the company’s asset portfolio.
Earnings Expansion and Shareholder Returns: The company reported strong growth in earnings during FY25 as improved margins and higher revenues supported profitability. Basic earnings per share increased to 2,313 South African cents in FY25 from 1,386 South African cents in FY24, reflecting growth of 67%. Headline earnings per share also improved to 2,337 South African cents in FY25 from 1,852 South African cents in FY24, representing an increase of 26%. Strong earnings enabled the company to enhance shareholder distributions, with total dividends for FY25 reaching R2.4 billion in line with the company’s dividend policy.
Rising Cost Structure and Capital Investment: While financial performance improved during FY25, the company experienced cost pressures associated with inflation and higher operational expenditures. Total cash operating costs increased to R40,266 million in FY25 compared with R36,858 million in FY24. On a unit basis, cash operating costs rose to R874,901 per kilogram in FY25 from R758,736 per kilogram in FY24 as lower production volumes and inflationary pressures affected cost efficiency. All-in sustaining costs also increased to R1,054,346 per kilogram in FY25 compared with R901,550 per kilogram in FY24. Additionally, capital expenditure rose significantly to R10,998 million in FY25 as the company invested in mine life extension projects, renewable energy initiatives, and other growth investments across its portfolio.
Balance Sheet Strength and Liquidity Position: Harmony further strengthened its balance sheet during FY25 through strong operating cash flows and disciplined capital management. Net cash increased significantly to R11.1 billion in FY25, representing a substantial increase compared with the previous year. At the same time, total liquidity reached R20.9 billion in cash and available credit facilities, providing the company with strong financial flexibility to fund capital investments and strategic growth initiatives while maintaining a conservative balance sheet structure.
Strategic Portfolio Expansion and Copper Diversification: During FY25 the company continued to advance its long-term growth strategy by expanding its exposure to copper assets. Mineral resources at the Eva Copper Project increased to 1.93 million tonnes of contained copper compared with 1.47 million tonnes previously, representing growth of 31%. Gold resources associated with the project also increased to 492 thousand ounces from 440 thousand ounces earlier. In addition, the planned acquisition of MAC Copper’s CSA Mine in Australia represents an important strategic step toward diversifying the company’s commodity portfolio and strengthening long-term production growth.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given to Harmony Gold Mining Company (NYSE: HMY) at the closing market price of USD 22.75, as on Feb 27, 2026
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Gold
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited |
-0.09 0.53% | 17.01 | 15.72 | - | 0.13 | 3.58 | 2.28 | 7.66 |
| AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited |
-6.33 3.66% | 166.66 | 22.95 | 16.00 | 8.59 | 4.38 | 8.85 | 12.58 |
| B Barrick Mining Corporation |
-0.95 2.30% | 40.34 | 14.66 | 11.20 | 4.26 | 2.71 | 4.14 | 6.35 |
| AU AngloGold Ashanti plc |
-0.05 0.06% | 90.87 | 20.56 | 12.69 | 5.44 | 6.65 | 5.37 | 9.20 |
| NEM Newmont Goldcorp Corp |
-1.88 1.78% | 103.79 | - | 11.61 | 4.29 | 2.48 | 4.55 | 26.44 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on March 2, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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