Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr, 26 | PBF | Buy | USD 40.0 | USD 42.0 | USD 44.0 | 6 days | Closed |
7.83%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
PBF Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in refining and supplying petroleum products. The company operates in two segments, Refining and Logistics. It produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals, and asphalt, as well as unbranded transportation fuels, petrochemical feedstocks, blending components, and other petroleum products from crude oil. The company sells its products in Northeast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast of the United States, as well as in other regions of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It also offers various rail, truck, and marine terminaling services, as well as pipeline transportation and storage services. PBF Energy Inc. was founded in 2008 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey.
Net Income Turnaround: USD 79.1 Mn in Q4FY25 vs (USD 292.6 Mn) in Q4FY24
Improvement in Quarterly Operating Income: USD 128.0 Mn in Q4FY25 vs (USD 383.2 Mn) in Q4FY24
Widening Adjusted Net Loss: (USD 474.6 Mn) in FY25 vs (USD 456.1 Mn) in FY24
Decline in Total Revenue: USD 29,332.3 Mn in FY25 vs USD 33,115.3 Mn in FY24
The company remains exposed to refining margin volatility, operational disruptions (including refinery outages), and fluctuations in crude oil prices and regulatory costs, which could materially impact earnings stability
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40.0 | 36.0 | 42.0 | 44.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Operational Recovery and Earnings Rebound in Q4FY25: PBF Energy Inc. reported a strong operational turnaround in Q4FY25, with income from operations rising to USD 128.0 million compared to a loss of USD 383.2 million in Q4FY24. This recovery was supported by improved refining margins and insurance recoveries linked to the Martinez refinery incident. Excluding special items, operating income stood at USD 99.4 million versus a loss of USD 427.9 million in the prior-year quarter, indicating a meaningful improvement in underlying business performance.
Net Profit Recovery Reflects Improved Business Dynamics: The company reported net income of USD 79.1 million in Q4FY25 compared to a net loss of USD 292.6 million in Q4FY24, driven by stronger refining economics and one-off benefits. Adjusted fully-converted net income (excluding special items) also improved significantly to USD 57.8 million from a loss of USD 324.5 million in the prior-year period, highlighting a substantial recovery in core profitability trends.
Full-Year Performance Shows Gradual Stabilization: For FY25, PBF reported a loss from operations of USD 54.3 million, significantly narrower than the USD 699.0 million loss in FY24. However, adjusted figures indicate ongoing challenges, with loss from operations (excluding special items) at USD 479.5 million compared to USD 588.0 million in FY24. While the company remains in a loss position, the improvement signals gradual stabilization amid operational disruptions earlier in the year.
Revenue Decline Amid Market Volatility: Total revenues declined to USD 29,332.3 million in FY25 from USD 33,115.3 million in FY24, reflecting lower crude prices and softer market conditions. Despite the revenue contraction, improved crack spreads and refining margins in certain regions partially offset the impact, supporting better quarterly profitability toward the end of the year.
Operational Challenges and Strategic Cost Initiatives: The Martinez refinery fire created operational disruptions and required significant restoration efforts, impacting throughput and margins during FY25. In response, the company accelerated its Refinery Business Improvement (RBI) initiative, delivering over USD 230 million in run-rate cost savings in 2025, with expectations to reach USD 350 million by the end of 2026. These initiatives are expected to structurally improve efficiency and cost competitiveness.
Balance Sheet and Liquidity Position Remain Stable: PBF ended FY25 with approximately USD 530 million in cash and USD 1,620 million in net debt. While leverage remains elevated, the company maintained shareholder returns by paying USD 126 million in dividends during the year and declaring a quarterly dividend of USD 0.275 per share. Insurance proceeds of USD 893.5 million related to the refinery incident also supported liquidity during the period.
Outlook Supported by Industry Tailwinds and Asset Positioning: Management highlighted improving refining industry fundamentals, with constrained global capacity and rising demand expected to create favorable conditions. The near-completion of the Martinez refinery restart and ongoing turnaround activities position the company to benefit from improved market dynamics. Additionally, investments in renewable diesel and operational efficiency initiatives are expected to support long-term growth and margin expansion.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given to PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE: PBF) at the current market price of USD 40.0, as on 23 april,2026 at 8:58 am PDT.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Energy Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBF PBF Energy Inc |
1.10 1.75% | 63.85 | 2.10 | 8.56 | 0.14 | 0.82 | 0.14 | 1.26 |
| PSX Phillips 66 |
1.94 0.94% | 208.80 | 8.10 | 9.57 | 0.39 | 1.91 | 0.50 | 5.71 |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum Corp |
2.71 0.87% | 315.31 | 5.69 | 11.07 | 0.38 | 2.26 | 0.49 | 3.55 |
| VLO Valero Energy Corporation |
3.66 1.18% | 313.31 | 4.54 | 9.21 | 0.31 | 1.74 | 0.34 | 2.87 |
| NTOIF Neste Oyj |
3.96 11.71% | 37.83 | 16.56 | 10.27 | 1.22 | 3.18 | 1.31 | 16.26 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on April 23, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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