Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May, 26 | CRCL | Buy | USD 118.13 | USD 134.0 | USD 144.0 | Same day | Closed |
18.09%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Circle Internet Group, Inc. operates as a platform, network, and market infrastructure for stablecoin and blockchain applications. The company provides various platform including Arc Blockchain and Developer Infrastructure, an open, layer-1 blockchain network purpose-built to bring real world economic activity onchain; Circle Digital Assets and Services, which includes circle digital assets, USDC, EURC, and USYC, as well as circle mint and xreserve, related liquidity, custody, and trust infrastructure; and Circle Applications, which includes circle payments network and stablefx, applications that use circle digital assets to deliver real-world utility on the arc network and across the broader multichain ecosystem. Its stablecoins network comprises circle stablecoins, tokenized funds, liquidity, payments network, and developer services, as well as integration services. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in New York, New York.
Growth in Adjusted EBITDA: USD 151.4 Mn in Q1FY26 vs USD 122.4 Mn in Q1FY25
Increase in Total Revenue and Reserve Income: USD 694.1 Mn in Q1FY26 vs USD 578.6 Mn in Q1FY25
Increase in Distribution, Transaction and Other Costs: USD 406.8 Mn in Q1FY26 vs USD 347.6 Mn in Q1FY25
Decline in Net Income from Continuing Operations: USD 55.2 Mn in Q1FY26 vs USD 64.8 Mn in Q1FY25
Key Investment Risk: Circle remains exposed to regulatory uncertainty surrounding stablecoins and digital assets, along with risks related to reserve management, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, competitive pressures, and volatility in blockchain ecosystem adoption
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118.13 | 105.0 | 134.0 | 144.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Strong Stablecoin Growth and Expanding Digital Asset Ecosystem: Circle Internet Group, Inc. delivered solid operational growth during Q1FY26, supported by rising adoption of USDC and expansion across digital asset infrastructure. USDC in circulation increased 28% YoY to USD 77.0 billion, while USDC onchain transaction volume surged 263% YoY to USD 21.5 trillion. The company also expanded enterprise integrations and strengthened its payments and interoperability ecosystem, reinforcing its position in the evolving stablecoin and blockchain infrastructure market.
Revenue Growth Driven by Higher Reserve Income: The company reported total revenue and reserve income of USD 694 million in Q1FY26, reflecting a 20% YoY increase, mainly supported by growth in reserve income from higher average USDC circulation. Reserve income rose 17% YoY to USD 653 million, while other revenue doubled to USD 42 million due to stronger subscription, transaction, and services revenue. Revenue less distribution costs increased 24% YoY to USD 287 million, highlighting improved monetization efficiency.
Expanding Payments and Enterprise Adoption: Operationally, Circle continued broadening its enterprise and payments ecosystem through the Circle Payments Network (CPN) and Managed Payments offerings. Annualized transaction volume across CPN reached USD 8.3 billion as of March 31, 2026, while enrolled financial institutions increased significantly. The company also expanded integrations with corporate treasury and digital asset platforms, including Kyriba and Polymarket, enabling broader institutional stablecoin adoption and strengthening utility across payment and treasury applications.
AI and Agentic Economy Strategy Enhances Long-Term Opportunity: Circle continued investing aggressively in AI-native financial infrastructure and agentic commerce solutions during Q1FY26. The launch of Circle Agent Stack, including Agent Wallets, Agent Marketplace, and Agent Nanopayments, positions the company to capitalize on AI-driven economic activity. Management highlighted the convergence of AI platforms and economic operating systems as a major long-term opportunity, while internal AI adoption also accelerated significantly across development and operational functions.
ARC Network and Interoperability Expansion Strengthen Ecosystem: The company advanced development of the Arc network and ARC Token ecosystem during the quarter. Circle completed a USD 222 million ARC Token presale at a USD 3.0 billion fully diluted network valuation, supported by major institutional investors. Additionally, Circle strengthened interoperability capabilities through Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP), with CCTP volume increasing substantially YoY and accounting for nearly 60% of all cross-chain traffic, supporting broader blockchain connectivity and network scalability.
Profitability Pressured by Elevated Operating Expenses: Despite strong revenue growth, profitability moderated during Q1FY26 due to higher operating investments and stock-based compensation expenses. Net income from continuing operations declined 15% YoY to USD 55 million, while operating expenses surged 76% YoY to USD 242 million. Higher compensation costs following the IPO, legal expenses, infrastructure investments, and product development spending weighed on margins as Circle continued scaling its platform and ecosystem capabilities.
Balance Sheet Strength and Outlook Remain Supportive: Circle maintained a strong balance sheet during Q1FY26, with total assets increasing to USD 80.5 billion from USD 78.7 billion at FY25-end. Cash and cash equivalents segregated for the benefit of stablecoin holders stood at USD 76.9 billion, supporting reserve-backed stability. Management reaffirmed FY26 guidance, including a 40% multi-year CAGR outlook for USDC circulation, USD 150–170 million other revenue guidance, and RLDC margin expectations of 38%–40%, reflecting confidence in sustained platform expansion.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given to Circle Internet Group, Inc. (NYSE: CRCL) at the current market price of USD 118.13, as on 11 May,2026 at 8:08 am PDT
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Financial Services Industry: Capital Markets
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRCL Circle Internet Group, Inc. |
4.99 8.25% | 65.45 | - | 101.01 | 10.30 | 7.90 | 9.03 | 123.85 |
| GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc |
-10.19 0.96% | 1055.03 | 17.21 | 16.00 | 4.47 | 2.26 | 11.15 | |
| MS Morgan Stanley |
-4.56 2.12% | 210.94 | 16.50 | 13.76 | 2.80 | 1.65 | ||
| SCHW Charles Schwab Corp |
0.98 0.96% | 102.54 | 22.86 | 17.39 | 6.14 | 4.28 | ||
| CIIHF CITIC Securities Company Limited |
- -% | 3.50 | 12.33 | 7.94 | 0.69 | 1.13 | 7.69 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on May 11, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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