Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May, 26 | VST | Buy | USD 139.24 | USD 147.0 | USD 155.0 | 2 days | Closed |
11.75%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia. In addition, the company is involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 3.5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 37,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.
Improvement in Net Income: USD 1.03 Billion profit in Q1FY26 vs USD 268 Million loss in Q1FY25
Increase in Operating Revenues: USD 5.64 Billion in Q1FY26 vs USD 3.93 Billion in Q1FY25
Increase in Income Tax Expense: USD 183 Million expense in Q1FY26 vs USD 176 Million tax benefit in Q1FY25
Increase in Selling, General and Administrative Expenses: USD 427 Million in Q1FY26 vs USD 391 Million in Q1FY25
Vistra remains exposed to commodity price volatility, adverse weather conditions, supply chain disruptions, regulatory changes, power market fluctuations, and macroeconomic uncertainties that could impact electricity demand, operating costs, and future profitability
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 139.24 | 125.0 | 147.0 | 155.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Strong Financial Recovery and Earnings Expansion: Vistra Corp. delivered a significant improvement in financial performance during Q1FY26, supported by stronger generation revenues, favorable pricing trends, and disciplined operational execution. Operating revenues increased to USD 5.64 billion from USD 3.93 billion in Q1FY25, while net income attributable to Vistra improved to USD 1.03 billion compared to a net loss of USD 268 million in the prior-year period. The company also reported diluted EPS of USD 2.87 versus a loss per share of USD 0.93 in Q1FY25.
Robust Power Generation and Hedging Performance: The company benefited from higher realized power prices and stronger capacity revenues during the quarter. Its comprehensive hedging strategy continued to support earnings stability despite mild weather conditions in ERCOT markets. Vistra highlighted resilient operational performance during winter storm events, demonstrating the strength and flexibility of its diversified generation fleet across nuclear, natural gas, coal, solar, and battery assets.
Growing Electricity Demand Supports Long-Term Outlook: Vistra continues to benefit from rising electricity demand trends driven by data centers, electric vehicle adoption, and electrification across industrial operations. Management noted ongoing discussions for long-term power purchase agreements with major counterparties, while also progressing nuclear uprates, gas plant expansions, and renewable energy developments. The company’s diversified fleet and extensive land holdings provide meaningful optionality for future capacity additions.
Disciplined Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns: The company maintained a disciplined capital allocation framework during Q1FY26, returning nearly USD 600 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Vistra reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of USD 6.8 billion to USD 7.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance of USD 3.93 billion to USD 4.73 billion. The company also expects to maintain investment-grade credit ratings while targeting additional shareholder value creation.
Strategic Development Pipeline and Future Growth Opportunities: Vistra is advancing multiple development initiatives across its generation portfolio, including nuclear uprates, natural gas capacity expansions, and renewable projects backed by long-term PPAs. Recently announced agreements with Meta and AWS are expected to increase the proportion of contracted and retail-based EBITDA streams. Additionally, the planned Cogentrix acquisition and future capacity additions could further strengthen Vistra’s long-term earnings profile and cash flow generation capabilities.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given to Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) at the current market price of USD 139.24, as on 20 May,2026 at 7:14 am PDT.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Utilities Industry: Utilities - Independent Power Producers
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST Vistra Corp. |
2.55 1.64% | 157.99 | 11.25 | 9.48 | 0.87 | 3.84 | 1.69 | 6.07 |
| CEG Constellation Energy Corp |
1.11 0.44% | 253.50 | 37.58 | 25.19 | 3.94 | 7.18 | 4.29 | 18.38 |
| UNPRF Uniper SE |
- -% | 50.23 | 0.05 | 4.91 | 0.28 | 2.51 | 0.17 | 0.52 |
| CGNWF CGN Power Co. Ltd |
- -% | 0.35 | 11.83 | 11.48 | 0.24 | 1.06 | 4.46 | 15.22 |
| HUNGF Huaneng Power International Inc |
- -% | 0.70 | 8.83 | 14.03 | 0.06 | 0.43 | 0.21 | 2.53 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on May 20, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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