Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr, 26 | NTR | Buy | USD 73.6 | USD 77.3 | USD 81.0 | 6 days | Closed |
5.03%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through four segments: Nutrien Ag Solutions, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate. The Nutrien Ag Solutions segment distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds, and merchandise products; product application, soil and leaf testing, crop scouting, precision agriculture, water, and brokerage agency services; and financing solutions. The Potash segment provides granular and standard potash products. The Nitrogen segment offers ammonia, urea, environmentally smart nitrogen, nitrogen solutions, nitrates, and sulfates. The Phosphate segment provides solid fertilizer, liquid fertilizer, and industrial and feed products. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.
Growth in Fertilizer Sales Volumes: 27.5 Mn tonnes in FY25 vs 27.0 Mn tonnes in FY24
Increase in Adjusted EBITDA: USD 6.05 Bn in FY25 vs USD 5.35 Bn in FY24
Decline in Crop Nutrient Sales Volumes: 11.9 Mn tonnes in FY25 vs 12.3 Mn tonnes in FY24
Higher Cost of Goods Sold in Potash Segment: USD 111/mt in FY25 vs USD 104/mt in FY24
The company faces risks from volatility in agricultural commodity prices, weather-dependent demand fluctuations, and geopolitical disruptions impacting fertilizer supply chains and input costs
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73.6 | 66.5 | 77.3 | 81.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Resilient Financial Performance Supported by Strong EBITDA Growth: Nutrien Ltd. delivered a robust financial performance in FY25, supported by strong operational execution and favorable fertilizer market dynamics. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of USD 6.05 billion, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase, highlighting improved profitability across its core segments. This growth was primarily driven by higher fertilizer volumes, improved pricing trends, and disciplined cost management. Net earnings stood at USD 2,297 million, reinforcing stable earnings generation despite macroeconomic volatility.
Record Fertilizer Volumes Driving Topline Expansion: The company achieved record fertilizer sales volumes of 27.5 million tonnes in FY25, driven by strong global demand and efficient supply chain execution. Potash volumes remained a key contributor, supported by strong offshore demand and favorable affordability, while nitrogen volumes increased to 10.9 million tonnes aided by improved operating rates. This volume-led growth highlights Nutrien’s ability to capitalize on rising global agricultural demand and nutrient replenishment needs.
Operational Efficiency and Cost Optimization Initiatives: Nutrien demonstrated strong operational discipline by surpassing its cost-saving targets and improving productivity across its operations. The company achieved over USD 200 million in annual cost savings and reduced capital expenditures to USD 2.0 billion, below its initial guidance. Additionally, advancements in mine automation (49% automated operations) enhanced safety and reduced production costs, with potash cash costs maintained below USD 60 per tonne.
Segmental Strength Across Potash, Nitrogen, and Retail: All major segments contributed to growth, with potash adjusted EBITDA reaching USD 2,254 million and nitrogen EBITDA at USD 2,147 million. Retail operations also delivered improved performance, with adjusted EBITDA rising to USD 1.74 billion, supported by strong proprietary product margins and cost reductions. This diversified segmental strength underlines the company’s balanced revenue mix and operational resilience.
Enhanced Cash Flow and Capital Allocation Discipline: The company significantly improved its free cash flow profile through efficient working capital management and disciplined capital allocation. Nutrien reduced short-term debt by over USD 600 million and generated approximately USD 900 million through divestitures of non-core assets. These actions strengthened the balance sheet and provided flexibility for shareholder returns and future investments.
Shareholder Returns and Strategic Portfolio Optimization: Nutrien increased cash returns to shareholders by 30% in FY25 through share buybacks and consistent dividend growth. The company also undertook strategic portfolio optimization, including divesting non-core assets and reviewing phosphate operations to enhance capital efficiency and focus on high-return businesses. This approach supports long-term value creation and improved return metrics.
Outlook Supported by Strong Market Fundamentals: Looking ahead, Nutrien expects continued growth supported by strong fertilizer demand, tight global supply conditions, and rising crop input requirements. Potash demand is projected to grow for the fourth consecutive year, with global shipments expected between 74–77 million tonnes. The company’s focus on operational efficiency, cost control, and strategic investments positions it well to sustain growth momentum in FY26 and beyond.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given to Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE: NTR) at the current market price of USD 73.6, as on 29 April,2026 at 8:25 am PDT.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Agricultural Inputs
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTR Nutrien Ltd |
-0.62 0.92% | 66.66 | 54.62 | 15.27 | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.64 | 10.45 |
| CTVA Corteva Inc |
-0.52 0.60% | 86.78 | 45.91 | 22.22 | 3.11 | 2.23 | 2.99 | 16.92 |
| CF CF Industries Holdings Inc |
2.21 1.82% | 123.63 | 12.92 | 13.97 | 2.63 | 3.85 | 2.86 | 6.18 |
| MOS The Mosaic Company |
0.28 1.27% | 22.41 | 9.17 | 11.07 | 0.78 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 5.38 |
| YARIY Yara International ASA |
-0.27 1.15% | 23.15 | 16.03 | 10.56 | 0.52 | 1.25 | 0.71 | 5.89 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on April 29, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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