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International Business Machines

Recommendation: Buy

Entry Date Symbol Recommendation Entry Price (USD) Target 1 (USD) Target 2 (USD) Holding Duration Potential Upside*
18 Nov, 24 IBM Buy USD 204.99 USD 223.44 USD 239.84 4 days 17.0%

*Potential Upside (%) indicates the expected percentage increase from the Entry Price to the Target 2 Price.

Fundamentals

  • Previous Close 248.66
  • Market Cap207850.90M
  • Volume1769463
  • P/E Ratio32.79
  • Dividend Yield2.97%
  • EBITDA14676.00M
  • Revenue TTM62580.00M
  • Revenue Per Share TTM68.11
  • Gross Profit TTM 35379.00M
  • Diluted EPS TTM6.84

Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).

Company Overview

International Business Machines Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated solutions and services worldwide. The company operates through Software, Consulting, Infrastructure, and Financing segments. The Software segment offers a hybrid cloud and AI platforms that allows clients to realize their digital and AI transformations across the applications, data, and environments in which they operate. The Consulting segment focuses on skills integration for strategy, experience, technology, and operations by domain and industry. The Infrastructure segment provides on-premises and cloud based server, and storage solutions, as well as life-cycle services for hybrid cloud infrastructure deployment. The Financing segment offers client and commercial financing, facilitates IBM clients' acquisition of hardware, software, and services. The company has a strategic partnership to various companies including hyperscalers, service providers, global system integrators, and software and hardware vendors that includes Adobe, Amazon Web services, Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, Samsung Electronics and SAP, and others. The company was formerly known as Computing-Tabulating-Recording Co. International Business Machines Corporation was incorporated in 1911 and is headquartered in Armonk, New York.

Key Positives

Software Revenue Growth – IBM’s Software segment saw a 10% rise in revenue, reflecting nearly half (45%) of total revenue

Higher Profit Margins – IBM’s GAAP gross profit margin increased to 56.3%, highlighting successful cost efficiencies and improved product mix

Key Negatives

Low Free Cash Flow Yield – IBM’s free cash flow yield (5.78%) lagged the industry median, highlighting a comparative weakness in cash efficiency

Currency Headwind – IBM anticipates that currency fluctuations will create a modest half-point headwind to Q4 revenue growth, potentially limiting overall performance

Key Investment Risks

Currency Fluctuations, Competitive Pressures in Infrastructure, Dependence on Legacy Hardware, and macro uncertainties

Recommendation Summary

Technical Summary

Entry Price Support* Target 1 Target 2
204.99 178.34 223.44 239.84

Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt

*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.

Key Reasons for Buy

  1. Revenue Growth in the Third Quarter: IBM reported USD 15.0 billion in revenue for the third quarter of 2024, marking a 1% increase year-over-year, or 2% at constant currency. This growth was largely driven by a 10% increase in the Software segment, demonstrating the positive impact of IBM’s strategic investments in expanding and repositioning its portfolio. Consulting revenue remained stable, while the Infrastructure segment faced a 7% decline, reflecting ongoing challenges in that area. The strong performance in Software, now comprising nearly 45% of IBM’s total revenue, underscores IBM’s shift towards higher-growth business areas.
  2. Profit Margins and Operational Efficiency: The third quarter saw IBM’s profit margins strengthen considerably, with the GAAP gross profit margin rising by 190 basis points to 56.3% and the non-GAAP operating gross profit margin increasing by 210 basis points to 57.5%. This improvement reflects IBM’s focus on optimizing product mix and driving productivity, which has reinforced its operating leverage and overall profitability. IBM CFO James Kavanaugh highlighted that these measures have been crucial in elevating performance, particularly within the Software division, which continues to experience broad-based growth.
  3. Financial Performance by Segment: IBM’s Software segment generated USD 6.5 billion in revenue, reflecting a 9.7% year-over-year increase, driven by strong growth across key areas such as Hybrid Platform & Solutions, Red Hat, and Automation, while the Security division saw a minor decrease. The Consulting segment reported USD 5.2 billion in revenue, representing a slight year-over-year decline of 0.5%, with Business Transformation seeing modest growth. Infrastructure revenue totaled USD 3.0 billion, a 7.0% decline due to lower performance in IBM Z and Distributed Infrastructure, alongside a decrease in Infrastructure Support. The Financing segment, with revenues of USD 0.2 billion, also faced a slight contraction.
  4. Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns: In the third quarter, IBM generated USD 2.9 billion in net cash from operating activities, a slight year-over-year decline of USD 0.2 billion. Free cash flow, however, increased by USD 0.4 billion to reach USD 2.1 billion. IBM returned USD 1.5 billion to shareholders in dividends during the quarter, consistent with its commitment to delivering shareholder value. For the first nine months of the year, IBM’s net operating cash stood at USD 9.1 billion, with free cash flow totaling USD 6.6 billion, reflecting its steady cash-generating capabilities.
  5. Strengthened Balance Sheet: IBM’s balance sheet remained robust, closing the third quarter with USD 13.7 billion in cash, restricted cash, and marketable securities, a USD 0.3 billion increase since the end of 2023. The company’s total debt, which includes USD 10.4 billion in financing-related debt, remained stable at USD 56.6 billion year-to-date. This stability in debt, coupled with increased cash reserves, positions IBM well to pursue growth initiatives and strategic investments, providing a solid foundation for future expansion.
  6. Outlook and Guidance for the Fourth Quarter: Looking ahead, IBM expects fourth-quarter revenue growth at constant currency to align with third-quarter performance. However, current foreign exchange rates are anticipated to create a slight half-point headwind. IBM reaffirmed its full-year free cash flow forecast of over USD 12 billion, underscoring its ability to support growth while returning value to shareholders. This guidance highlights IBM’s ongoing commitment to profitability and sustained operational efficiency across its core business segments.

Considering the decent fundamentals, consistent top-line result, higher profitability ratios, associated risks, healthy cash balance, and current valuation, a "Buy" recommendation is given on the stock at the closing market price of USD 204.99, as of November 18, 2024.

Key Financials in Pictures

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Change in Cash

Total Operating Cash

Dividends Paid

Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).

Peer Comparison

Sector: Technology Industry: Information Technology Services

Company Change (USD) Price (USD) Trailing PE (x) Forward PE (x) Price Sales TTM (x) Price to Book Value (x) Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x)
IBM
International Business Machines
0.45 0.18% 249.11 32.79 20.83 3.32 8.50 4.06 20.10
ACN
Accenture plc
2.60 0.83% 314.64 31.75 28.09 3.49 7.94 3.45 20.00
FI
Fiserv, Inc.
0.94 0.43% 221.78 28.20 15.58 4.24 2.70 5.45 13.13
INFY
Infosys Ltd ADR
-0.15 0.82% 18.10 25.55 22.78 4.20 8.01 4.10 15.87
AEXAY
Atos Origin SA ADR
- -% 0.001 - 0.28 4.20 1.74 0.52 -2.0097

Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).

Disclosures:

Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is November 18, 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Disclaimer :
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