Nebius Group N.V.

Key Reasons for Buy

• Strong Revenue Growth and AI Infrastructure Expansion: In Q4 2024, Nebius Group achieved a significant revenue increase, reaching USD 37.9 million, reflecting a 466% year-over-year (YoY) growth. This surge was primarily driven by the expansion of its AI infrastructure business, which grew by 602% YoY. For the full year 2024, the Group reported total revenue of USD 117.5 million, marking a 462% YoY increase. Despite this robust growth, the company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of USD 75.5 million in Q4 2024 and a net loss from continuing operations of USD 136.6 million. For the entire year, adjusted EBITDA loss was USD 266.4 million, while net loss from continuing operations reached USD 396.9 million.
• Successful Capital Raise and Strategic Investments: In December 2024, Nebius Group completed a USD 700 million capital raise, which was oversubscribed and included contributions from leading investors such as Nvidia, Accel, and Orbis. The company’s total cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2024, stood at USD 2,449.6 million. Capital expenditures were substantial, amounting to USD 417.6 million in Q4 and USD 808.1 million for the full year. Cash outflow from operations was recorded at USD 80.4 million for Q4 and USD 319.6 million for the full year. These investments were directed toward expanding AI infrastructure capacity and advancing product development.
• AI Infrastructure Developments and Business Expansion: Nebius continued to enhance its AI infrastructure footprint in Q4 2024, deploying its first NVIDIA GPU cluster in the United States and expanding operations in Europe. The company also launched a new AI-native cloud platform, built from the ground up, and an inference platform, AI Studio. The total deployed base of NVIDIA Hopper GPUs, including H200 Tensor Core, nearly doubled quarter-over-quarter. Additionally, Nebius announced plans to deploy over 22,000 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs in 2025 across data centers in the U.S. and Finland. The company’s December 2024 annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) stood at USD 90 million, with March 2025 ARR expected to reach at least USD 220 million based on signed contracts.
• Business Unit Performance and Market Penetration: The Group’s other business units also demonstrated strong growth. Toloka, its AI development platform, shifted its focus to training data for Generative AI, achieving 140% YoY revenue growth in 2024. TripleTen, the Group’s edtech subsidiary, reported a 100% YoY increase in student enrollment for its bootcamp programs, expanding its product portfolio and launching financing options through Ascent. Avride, the Group’s autonomous vehicle division, entered partnerships with Grubhub and Uber Eats, successfully launching delivery operations at Ohio State University and piloting autonomous deliveries in major U.S. cities. Additionally, Avride received certification in Japan and expanded its presence in South Korea.
• Corporate Developments and Nasdaq Trading Resumption: In October 2024, Nebius resumed trading on Nasdaq after a period of suspension. Shortly thereafter, the company reinstated its Equity Incentive Plan, granting restricted share unit (RSU) awards covering 8.9 million Class A shares. Of these, 700,000 shares vested and became tradeable in January 2025, with additional shares set to vest over the next four years. The Board of Directors also decided against a share repurchase program, opting instead to reinvest capital into AI infrastructure expansion. The company issued 33.3 million Class A shares at a premium to the volume-weighted average price following the Nasdaq resumption.
• Financial Performance and Shareholder Information: Nebius Group reported a Q4 2024 loss from operations of USD 151.2 million, a 62% increase compared to Q4 2023, primarily due to expansion-related costs and increased share-based compensation expenses. Foreign exchange losses further impacted the financial results. As of December 31, 2024, the company had 235.8 million shares outstanding, with 126.3 million held in treasury. Additionally, the Group continued fulfilling obligations related to its 2022 convertible note settlement, transferring approximately 3.1 million Class A shares in 2024. The company’s outstanding equity awards included 0.8 million employee stock options and 9.9 million RSUs, reinforcing its long-term incentive structure for employees and key stakeholders.

Technical Observation (on the daily chart):

The stock recently reversed from an uptrend after peaking above USD 45 in February, now trading below both the 21-day (USD 33.35) and 50-day (USD 34.35) moving averages, indicating bearish momentum. RSI (43.72) suggests neutral to slightly oversold conditions, while volume remains low after a period of heavy selling. Support is around USD 23.20-USD 26.03, with resistance near USD 30.55-USD 33.38. A breakout above moving averages could signal recovery, while a drop below USD 28 may lead to further downside. The stock appears to be in a consolidation phase, awaiting a clearer directional move.

As per the above-mentioned price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘Buy’ rating has been given to Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ: NBIS) at the closing market price of USD 28.29 as of March 17,2025.