Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Potential Upside* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr, 25 | COIN | Buy | USD 190.0 | USD 200.0 | USD 207.0 | 2 days | 8.9% |
*Potential Upside (%) indicates the expected percentage increase from the Entry Price to the Target 2 Price.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Coinbase Global, Inc. provides financial infrastructure and technology for the crypto economy in the United States and internationally. The company offers the primary financial account in the crypto economy for consumers; and a marketplace with a pool of liquidity for transacting in crypto assets for institutions. It also provides technology and services that enable developers to build crypto products and securely accept crypto assets as payment. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Wilmington, Delaware.
Trading Volume Surge: Institutional trading volume increased by 93%, from $59 billion to $114 billion QoQ
Revenue Growth: Q4 revenue rose by 45% quarter-over-quarter, reaching $953 million
Stablecoin Growth Lag: USDC market cap increased by just $1 billion, from $24B to $25B, indicating limited traction compared to broader market activity
Moderate MTU Growth: Monthly Transacting Users increased by only 3%, a relatively slow pace compared to other metrics
Coinbase faces significant investment risk from regulatory uncertainty and potential enforcement actions in key jurisdictions, which could materially impact its core operations, profitability, and international growth plans
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1 | Target 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 190.0 | 174.0 | 200.0 | 207.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
Robust Revenue and Earnings Growth
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Coinbase reported total revenue of $953 million, marking a 45% increase compared to the previous quarter. This surge was largely fueled by favorable market conditions, including higher crypto asset prices and increased volatility. Net income rose substantially to $273 million, up from just $0.5 million in Q3 2024. The company’s adjusted EBITDA reached $305 million, reflecting improved profitability and effective cost management.
Transaction and Service Revenue Expansion
Coinbase’s transaction revenue soared to $529 million, representing an 83% quarter-over-quarter increase. This rise was driven by heightened trading activity among both retail and institutional users. In addition, subscription and services revenue hit a record $375 million, up 12% from Q3. This segment’s growth underscores the increasing diversification of Coinbase’s revenue base, reducing dependency on trading fees alone.
Growing User and Trading Activity
Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) increased to 5.9 million, a 3% rise from the previous quarter. More notably, total trading volume surged to $154 billion, up 92% from Q3 levels. Institutional participation also expanded significantly, with institutional trading volume more than doubling from $59 billion in Q3 to $114 billion in Q4, indicating a strong rebound in market engagement from sophisticated investors.
International and Product Expansion
Coinbase made strategic advances internationally, including the launch of spot trading on its International Exchange. Additionally, perpetuals trading volume on the platform increased more than five-fold quarter-over-quarter, demonstrating growing global interest. The company’s stablecoin, USDC, also saw a modest rise in market capitalization to $25 billion as of December 31, 2024, further validating Coinbase’s footprint in the stablecoin ecosystem.
Full-Year 2024 Financial Highlights
For the full fiscal year, Coinbase generated $3.1 billion in total revenue and reported net income of $95 million. The year also saw the company achieve $977 million in adjusted EBITDA, underpinned by disciplined cost management. This marks a notable turnaround from prior years marked by net losses, as Coinbase returns to profitability on the back of improved market dynamics and internal operational efficiency.
Cost Discipline and Operational Efficiency
Coinbase’s ability to achieve profitability in 2024 was largely driven by sustained efforts in cost control and operational streamlining. The company highlighted its progress in becoming more efficient, with cost discipline evident across departments. These efforts not only supported earnings growth but also laid the foundation for sustainable performance in varying market conditions.
Ecosystem Strategy and Long-Term Positioning
Coinbase emphasized its commitment to building an onchain economy through scalable, decentralized infrastructure. The firm continues to evolve its product suite to support a wide range of crypto-native and institutional users. With the crypto regulatory landscape still forming globally, Coinbase aims to position itself as a compliant, trusted player in the space, which may serve as a competitive advantage in the long run
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given to Coinbase Global, Inc (NASDAQ: COIN) at the closing market price of USD 190.00, as on April 22, 2025.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Financial Services Industry: Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN Coinbase Global Inc |
1.02 0.39% | 262.40 | 46.51 | 91.74 | 20.34 | 9.48 | 18.28 | 390.34 |
| SPGI S&P Global Inc |
-8.99 1.72% | 513.95 | 56.69 | 29.76 | 11.11 | 3.83 | 11.88 | 29.36 |
| CME CME Group Inc |
2.70 0.97% | 280.57 | 25.13 | 22.62 | 14.28 | 3.02 | 14.28 | 17.43 |
| MCO Moodys Corporation |
-7.55 1.55% | 479.44 | 47.15 | 34.13 | 12.22 | 21.93 | 13.13 | 30.23 |
| ICE Intercontinental Exchange Inc |
-0.09 0.05% | 176.20 | 28.62 | 21.79 | 9.36 | 2.78 | 9.72 | 19.58 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is April 22,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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