Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Potential Upside* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr, 25 | AR | Buy | USD 33.1 | USD 34.76 | USD 36.0 | 3 days | 8.8% |
*Potential Upside (%) indicates the expected percentage increase from the Entry Price to the Target 2 Price.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and Production; Marketing; and Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream. As of December 31, 2024, the company had approximately 521,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and approximately 170,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale. Its gathering and compression systems also comprise 708 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian Basin. The company was formerly known as Antero Resources Appalachian Corporation and changed its name to Antero Resources Corporation in June 2013. Antero Resources Corporation was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
$159 million in Free Cash Flow in Q4 2024, despite a challenging price environment and no hedging, indicating strong cost discipline and capital efficiency
14% increase in Q4 2024 liquids production year-over-year to 217 MBbl/d, highlighting growth in high-margin production
Full-year natural gas production down 3%, pointing to continued softness in this segment over the year
7% decline in natural gas production in Q4 2024 compared to the previous year, suggesting pressure in gas volumes
Antero Resources faces exposure to commodity price volatility, particularly in natural gas, which may significantly impact cash flows and earnings given its relatively unhedged position and reliance on premium pricing through firm transportation agreements
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1 | Target 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33.1 | 28.0 | 34.76 | 36.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
Production Performance Overview
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Antero Resources achieved average net production of 3.4 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d). Natural gas production for the quarter was 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), marking a 7% year-over-year decline. However, this was offset by a notable increase in liquids production, which averaged 217 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d), reflecting a 14% increase from the same period in 2023. For the full year 2024, net production also averaged 3.4 Bcfe/d, representing a 1% increase compared to the previous year, with natural gas volumes slightly down by 3%, while liquids production improved by 8%.
Pricing and Realizations
Antero realized favorable commodity pricing during the fourth quarter. The pre-hedge natural gas equivalent price stood at $3.64 per Mcfe, reflecting an $0.85 premium to NYMEX. Additionally, the pre-hedge C3+ NGL price was $44.29 per barrel, yielding a $3.09 premium to Mont Belvieu. These premiums underscore Antero’s access to high-value markets and the strategic advantage provided by its transportation portfolio, which remains central to the company's pricing strength.
Financial Results and Capital Discipline
During Q4 2024, Antero generated $150 million in net income and $181 million in Adjusted Net Income (Non-GAAP). Adjusted EBITDAX reached $332 million, while net cash provided by operating activities was $278 million. The company maintained strict capital discipline, with drilling and completion capital at $120 million—27% lower than the prior-year quarter. As a result, Antero generated $159 million in Free Cash Flow (Non-GAAP) during the quarter.
Operational Efficiency and Reserves Update
Antero achieved a quarterly record with an average of 13.2 completion stages per day, reflecting ongoing improvements in operational efficiency. For the full year, this figure averaged 12.2 stages per day, a 14% increase from 2023. The company ended 2024 with estimated proved reserves of 17.9 Tcfe, of which 13.7 Tcfe (77%) were proved developed. The estimated future development cost for 4.2 Tcfe of proved undeveloped reserves was $0.44 per Mcfe, demonstrating cost-effective resource development.
2025 Guidance and Strategic Outlook
Looking ahead, Antero has increased its maintenance production target by 50 MMcfe/d, now expecting 2025 average net production to range between 3.35 and 3.45 Bcfe/d, primarily driven by continued liquids growth. The company has also lowered its previously announced drilling and completion capital budget by $25 million at the midpoint, setting the 2025 range at $650 to $700 million. Realized pricing premiums are expected to continue, with natural gas averaging $0.10 to $0.20 per Mcf above NYMEX, and C3+ NGLs averaging $1.50 to $2.50 per barrel above Mont Belvieu.
Management Commentary and Strategic Positioning
Chairman, CEO, and President Paul Rady highlighted that Antero’s 2024 development program exceeded production guidance by 2% and underspent capital by 8%, underscoring strong asset quality and improved capital efficiency. CFO Michael Kennedy emphasized the company's peer-leading Free Cash Flow breakeven levels, even in a low gas price environment. With 75% of natural gas volumes contracted to the Gulf Coast LNG corridor, Antero is well-positioned to benefit from improved pricing linked to recently launched LNG export terminals.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given to Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE: AR) at the closing market price of USD 33.10, as on April 11, 2025.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Energy Industry: Oil & Gas E&P
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR Antero Resources Corp |
-0.255 0.64% | 39.52 | 51.69 | 13.68 | 2.68 | 1.71 | 3.63 | 14.94 |
| COP ConocoPhillips |
-1.06 1.18% | 88.63 | 12.82 | 11.12 | 2.24 | 2.90 | 2.47 | 5.63 |
| CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Ltd |
0.41 1.34% | 31.09 | 15.51 | 14.24 | 2.37 | 2.92 | 2.26 | 5.34 |
| EOG EOG Resources Inc |
-0.22 0.20% | 112.36 | 9.09 | 8.98 | 3.01 | 2.57 | 2.97 | 5.16 |
| PEXNY PTT Exploration & Production |
- -% | 7.98 | 25.79 | 24.51 | 5.92 | 3.66 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is April 11,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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