Recommendation: Speculative Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Potential Upside* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr, 25 | QFIN | Speculative Buy | USD 38.84 | USD 40.6 | USD 43.0 | Same day | 10.7% |
*Potential Upside (%) indicates the expected percentage increase from the Entry Price to the Target 2 Price.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Qifu Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates credit-tech platform under the 360 Jietiao brand in the People's Republic of China. The company provides credit-driven services that matches borrowers with financial institutions to conduct customer acquisition, initial and credit screening, advanced risk assessment, credit assessment, fund matching, and other post-facilitation services; and platform services, including loan facilitation and post-facilitation services to financial institution partners under intelligence credit engine, referral services, and risk management software-as-a-service. It offers e-commerce loans, enterprise loans, and invoice loans to SME owners. It serves financial institutions, consumers, and small- and micro-enterprises. The company was formerly known as 360 DigiTech, Inc. and changed its name to Qifu Technology, Inc. in March 2023. Qifu Technology, Inc. was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Net Income Growth: Full-year net income surged 46.4% YoY to RMB6.25 billion, indicating strong profitability improvements
Capital-light Transition: Capital-light loan origination increased to 53.2% of total loan volume in Q4 2024, up from 39.4% in Q4 2023, reducing balance sheet risk
Loan Origination Dip: Loan origination volume for Q4 was RMB86.7 billion, down 1.7% YoY, suggesting a slowdown in lending activity
Revenue Decline: Q4 total revenue declined 7.6% YoY to RMB4.48 billion, reflecting potential growth headwinds
Qifu Technology’s reliance on borrower quality and credit performance exposes it to heightened risk from macroeconomic downturns or regulatory tightening, which could impair loan demand and asset quality
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1 | Target 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38.84 | 35.4 | 40.6 | 43.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
Operational Trends: Qifu Technology demonstrated solid operational growth in Q4 2024, with registered users reaching 261.2 million, up 11% year-over-year. Borrowers with successful loan drawdowns rose 13.1% to 34.4 million. The company accelerated its shift toward a capital-light model, with such products comprising 53.2% of total loan origination, significantly up from the previous year. Repeat borrowers made up nearly 94% of loans, highlighting strong customer retention and platform loyalty.
Financial Performance: In Q4, Qifu generated RMB4.48 billion in total revenue, a slight decrease from the prior year but an improvement from the previous quarter. Net income reached RMB1.91 billion, with a robust Non-GAAP net margin of about 44%. For the full year 2024, net income surged 46.4% year-over-year to RMB6.25 billion, reflecting effective cost control and higher operational efficiency.
Risk and Credit Metrics: The company maintained stable credit risk metrics, with its 90-day+ delinquency rate at 2.09% and a day-1 delinquency rate of 4.8% in Q4. This stability indicates prudent risk management amid market uncertainties. Additionally, the collection rate improved to 88.1%, reflecting better borrower quality and more effective recovery efforts.
Strategic Commentary: Management emphasized a strategic focus on quality growth, AI-driven innovation, and embedded financial services. By year-end, 58% of loan balances were from capital-light products, showing a meaningful reduction in credit exposure. The company also hit a record in asset-backed securities (ABS) issuance, underscoring improved funding diversification and investor confidence.
Technical Commentary:
QFIN's stock price is demonstrating resilience at its support levels and has experienced a slight increase, suggesting the possibility of continued upward momentum in the near future. The 14-period RSI is hovering around the midpoint, reinforcing a positive outlook. Furthermore, the stock is currently trading below both its 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages. If it can maintain its position above these averages, we may see increased buying activity in the near term.
As per the above-mentioned price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘Speculative Buy’ rating has been given to Qifu Technology. Inc. (NASDAQ: QFIN) at its current market price of USD 38.84 as of April 23, 2025 (7:00 am PDT).
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Financial Services Industry: Credit Services
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QFIN 360 Finance Inc |
-0.32 0.74% | 43.17 | 8.02 | 3.27 | 0.35 | 1.91 | 3.11 | |
| V Visa Inc. Class A |
-6.3 1.72% | 360.54 | 31.25 | 25.97 | 16.18 | 13.64 | 16.19 | 23.37 |
| MA Mastercard Inc |
-7.2625 1.25% | 573.85 | 37.04 | 29.50 | 16.14 | 62.35 | 16.47 | 27.24 |
| AXP American Express Company |
-6.035 2.04% | 290.13 | 21.83 | 20.04 | 3.53 | 7.21 | 4.18 | |
| PYPL PayPal Holdings Inc |
0.25 0.34% | 72.86 | 21.96 | 18.69 | 2.93 | 4.56 | 2.86 | 12.64 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risk: This report may be looked at from a high-risk perspective and a recommendation is provided for a short duration. This report is solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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