Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May, 25 | CEG | Buy | USD 297.49 | USD 315.0 | USD 330.0 | 7 days | Closed |
8.02%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Constellation Energy Corporation generates and sells electricity in the United States. It operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. The company sells natural gas, energy-related products, and sustainable solutions. It has approximately 33,094 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. It serves distribution utilities; municipalities; cooperatives; and commercial, industrial, governmental, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.
Natural gas dispatch match rate improved by 1.3 percentage points, reaching 99.2% in Q1 2025, reflecting strong operational efficiency.
Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings rose by 17.6% year-over-year, from $1.82 to $2.14 per share.
Nuclear fleet experienced an increase in planned refueling outage days from 78 to 88 days, potentially impacting short-term generation output.
GAAP Net Income dropped significantly by 86.3%, from $2.78 to $0.38 per share year-over-year.
Constellation Energy’s heavy reliance on regulatory frameworks and long-cycle nuclear operations exposes it to significant policy, operational, and project execution risks, particularly related to the integration of Calpine and the restart of legacy assets like Crane
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1 | Target 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 297.49 | 260.0 | 315.0 | 330.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
Strong Adjusted Earnings Performance Amid Market Tailwinds
Constellation Energy Corporation reported a solid financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings rising to USD 2.14 per share, a 17.6% increase from USD 1.82 per share in the same period in 2024. This increase was driven by favorable market and portfolio conditions, offset slightly by underperformance in the nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC) portfolio. Despite the strong adjusted earnings, GAAP Net Income saw a significant decline to USD 0.38 per share, compared to USD 2.78 per share in Q1 2024.
Full-Year Earnings Guidance Reaffirmed
The company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 Adjusted Operating Earnings guidance range of USD 8.90 to USD 9.60 per share, indicating confidence in its ongoing operational and financial strength. Management emphasized its ability to provide long-term value through clean, reliable energy amid rising demand from sectors such as AI, which increasingly require substantial and sustainable power sources.
Strategic Acquisition of Calpine on Track
Constellation advanced its strategic growth plans with the announcement of a definitive agreement to acquire Calpine Corporation. This acquisition, expected to close by the end of 2025, will combine Constellation’s nuclear and clean energy portfolio with Calpine’s dispatchable natural gas assets. The merger aims to position the company as the largest competitive retail electric supplier in the U.S., serving 2.5 million customers with comprehensive energy solutions.
Crane Clean Energy Center Fast-Tracked
PJM Interconnection, the largest regional transmission organization in the United States, selected Constellation’s Crane Clean Energy Center for expedited grid connection under its Reliability Resource Initiative. This decision supports the restart of Crane’s Unit 1 reactor, which will add emissions-free energy to the grid and increase system reliability. Additional uprate projects across the fleet are expected to contribute more than 1,150 MW of clean, firm electricity to the grid.
Strong Nuclear and Gas Operations Performance
Constellation’s nuclear fleet, including stakes in the Salem and South Texas Project (STP) plants, produced 45,582 GWhs in Q1 2025, slightly higher than the 45,391 GWhs produced in Q1 2024. The owned nuclear fleet achieved a capacity factor of 94.1%, up from 93.3% in the prior-year period. Natural gas and pumped storage operations delivered a dispatch match rate of 99.2%, an improvement over 97.9% in the first quarter of 2024, showcasing enhanced reliability and responsiveness.
Renewable Operations Remain Consistent
Performance from the renewable portfolio remained steady, with renewable energy capture at 96.2% in Q1 2025 compared to 96.3% in Q1 2024. The fleet includes wind, solar, and run-of-river hydro assets. While slightly down year-over-year, the high capture rate underscores the operational consistency of the company’s renewable assets.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on Constellation Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: CEG) at the closing market price of USD 297.49, as on May 23, 2025.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Utilities Industry: Utilities - Renewable
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG Constellation Energy Corp |
5.25 1.71% | 311.88 | 26.42 | 27.55 | 3.13 | 6.31 | 3.58 | 13.47 |
| OEZVF VERBUND AG |
- -% | 76.69 | 10.61 | 13.37 | 2.57 | 3.03 | 2.51 | 6.50 |
| OEZVY Verbund AG ADR |
0.004 0.03% | 15.53 | 10.72 | 13.53 | 2.57 | 3.06 | 2.51 | 6.50 |
| DNNGY Orsted A/S ADR |
0.01 0.07% | 15.10 | - | 25.91 | 0.23 | 2.02 | 0.31 | -8.6553 |
| DOGEF Orsted A/S |
2.12 4.91% | 45.39 | - | 26.18 | 0.22 | 2.04 | 0.30 | -8.4027 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is May 23,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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