Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May, 25 | FMC | Buy | USD 40.0 | USD 42.0 | USD 44.0 | 16 days | Closed |
5.00%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
FMC Corporation, an agricultural sciences company, provides crop protection, plant health, and professional pest and turf management products. It develops, markets, and sells crop protection chemicals that includes insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides; and biologicals, crop nutrition, and seed treatment products, which are used in agriculture to enhance crop yield and quality by controlling a range of insects, weeds, and diseases, as well as in non-agricultural markets for pest control. The company markets its products through its own sales organization and through alliance partners, independent distributors, and sales representatives. It operates in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The company was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Plant Health Performance: The Plant Health segment grew 1%, outperforming the broader portfolio, driven by demand in biologicals
Latin America Sales Growth: Sales in Latin America increased by 10% (17% excluding FX) due to stronger direct engagement with Brazilian cotton growers
Cash Flow Weakness: Free cash flow was negative $596 million, down $408 million compared to Q1 2024
Adjusted EBITDA Decline: Adjusted EBITDA dropped by 25% year-over-year to $120 million in Q1 2025
FMC’s earnings remain exposed to adverse pricing trends, regulatory challenges, and high sensitivity to foreign exchange movements and working capital volatility
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1 | Target 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40.0 | 36.0 | 42.0 | 44.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
Revenue and Profitability Decline in Q1 2025
FMC Corporation reported first quarter 2025 revenue of $791 million, marking a 14% year-over-year decrease and a 10% organic decline. This performance reflects ongoing pricing pressures and foreign exchange headwinds. The company posted a consolidated GAAP net loss of $16 million, down by $13 million from the same period in 2024. On a per-share basis, the GAAP loss was $0.12, representing a $0.10 decline year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per diluted share were $0.18, a substantial 50% decrease from the first quarter of 2024.
EBITDA and Margin Pressures Persist
Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 came in at $120 million, a 25% reduction compared to the prior-year period. The decline was driven by lower selling prices, reduced volumes, and a 4% foreign exchange headwind. Although favorable cost performance, particularly in cost of goods sold (COGS), partially mitigated these pressures, increased investments in selling and R&D expenses impacted margins.
Regional Sales Performance Mixed Across Geographies
Sales in North America declined sharply by 28%, largely due to reduced volumes as U.S. customers delayed purchases and were affected by international trade dynamics. Asia also experienced a 24% decline in revenue, or 21% excluding FX effects, due to controlled sales for channel destocking. EMEA revenue dropped 11% (7% excluding FX) owing to lower volumes and the anticipated regulatory loss of triflusulfuron. In contrast, Latin America was a bright spot with a 10% increase in revenue (17% excluding FX), driven by stronger direct sales in Brazil. The Plant Health business saw modest growth of 1%, supported by increased demand in biologicals.
Cash Flow Performance Weakens Significantly
FMC reported negative cash from operations of $545 million in Q1 2025, a $402 million decline compared to the prior year, due primarily to a smaller reduction in inventory levels. Free cash flow was also deeply negative at $596 million, falling by $408 million from Q1 2024. These figures highlight ongoing liquidity and working capital challenges stemming from weaker top-line performance and cautious inventory management.
Full-Year 2025 Outlook Maintained
Despite the weak Q1 performance, FMC reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance. Revenue is expected to range between $4.15 billion and $4.35 billion, essentially flat at the midpoint compared to 2024 but up 3% when adjusting for the Global Specialty Solutions (GSS) divestiture. Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted between $870 million and $950 million, representing a 1% increase at the midpoint versus 2024, or 4% excluding the GSS impact. Adjusted earnings per share are projected to be between $3.26 and $3.70, unchanged from prior guidance.
Q2 2025 Expectations Reflect Gradual Improvement
For the second quarter of 2025, FMC anticipates revenue between $940 million and $1.10 billion, implying a 2% decline at the midpoint versus Q2 2024. Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted in the range of $175 million to $205 million, a 6% decline at the midpoint year-over-year. The company expects modest volume growth, although it will likely be outweighed by price decreases and FX impacts. Adjusted EPS is projected between $0.52 and $0.68, representing a 5% decline at the midpoint compared to the prior-year period.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on FMC Corporation (NYSE: FMC) at the closing market price of USD 40.00, as on May 19, 2025.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Agricultural Inputs
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMC FMC Corporation |
-0.22 0.49% | 44.23 | 4.47 | 11.48 | 1.63 | 1.45 | 2.48 | 22.87 |
| CTVA Corteva Inc |
0.12 0.16% | 77.12 | 30.23 | 15.58 | 1.89 | 1.30 | 2.10 | 13.87 |
| NTR Nutrien Ltd |
0.15 0.25% | 60.14 | 54.62 | 15.27 | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.64 | 10.45 |
| CF CF Industries Holdings Inc |
0.80 0.85% | 94.65 | 14.08 | 13.59 | 2.58 | 2.96 | 2.80 | 5.90 |
| MOS The Mosaic Company |
-0.54 1.43% | 37.27 | 9.17 | 11.07 | 0.78 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 5.38 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is May 19,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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