Recommendation: Speculative Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (CAD) | Target 1 (CAD) | Target 2 (CAD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jun, 25 | MND | Speculative Buy | CAD 4.85 | CAD 5.1 | CAD 5.3 | 28 days | Closed |
7.22%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Mandalay Resources Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, extraction, processing, and reclamation of mineral properties in Australia, Sweden, Chile, and Canada. It explores for gold, copper, silver, and antimony deposits. The company's assets consist of the Costerfield gold-antimony mine covering an area of 1,219 hectares located in Victoria, Australia; the Björkdal gold mine that covers an area of approximately 12,949 hectares located in Skelleftea, Sweden; and copper silver development property located in the Coquimbo region, Chile. Mandalay Resources Corporation was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Enhanced Profitability and Margin Expansion: Adjusted EBITDA grew by 65%, reaching USD 44.1 million, with an EBITDA margin of 56%, up significantly from the prior year's 48%.
Strong Top-Line Expansion: Revenue surged by 41% year-over-year, reaching USD 78.1 million in Q1 2025 compared to USD 55.5 million in Q1 2024.
Escalating Cost Profile: All-in sustaining costs per gold equivalent ounce rose by 40%, from USD 1,430 to USD 2,004, driven by front-loaded capital investments and lower production
Decline in Production Volumes: Gold equivalent production dropped by 10%, falling to 22,342 ounces in Q1 2025 from 24,936 ounces in Q1 2024
Mandalay faces heightened cost and production volatility risks due to its reliance on aging mine infrastructure and variability in ore grades at its two primary operations
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.85 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 5.3 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Robust Financial Growth and Strengthened Liquidity: Mandalay Resources delivered a strong financial performance in the first quarter of 2025, driven by favorable commodity prices and operational execution. The company reported a 41% year-over-year increase in consolidated revenue, reaching USD 78.1 million, supported by higher average realized prices of USD 3,046/oz for gold and USD 34,923/tonne for antimony. Consolidated net income surged by 152% to USD 14.8 million, or USD 0.16 per share, compared to USD 5.9 million or USD 0.06 per share in Q1 2024. Cash and cash equivalents stood at USD 88.3 million as of March 31, 2025, up from USD 76.4 million at the end of 2024, with the company maintaining a debt-free balance sheet.
Improved Profitability and Operating Margins: Adjusted EBITDA rose significantly to USD 44.1 million in Q1 2025, up 65% from USD 26.7 million in the prior-year quarter. This increase translated to a higher adjusted EBITDA margin of 56%. Adjusted net income also grew to USD 20.0 million, excluding a USD 5.0 million loss on financial instruments and minor reclamation liability revisions. The results demonstrate Mandalay's ability to maintain strong profitability and cash generation, despite cost pressures, aided by disciplined capital allocation and ongoing investments in operational sustainability.
Cost Pressures and Capital Expenditure Trends: Despite robust top-line growth, Mandalay experienced a notable increase in production costs. Consolidated cash operating costs rose by 30% year-over-year to USD 1,348 per ounce of gold equivalent, while all-in sustaining costs (AISC) increased by 40% to USD 2,004 per ounce. These increases were primarily driven by planned front-loaded capital investments, such as accelerated development at Björkdal and infill drilling at Costerfield. Total capital expenditures for the quarter amounted to USD 16.7 million, up from USD 13.1 million in Q1 2024.
Costerfield Mine: Lower Grades and Higher Costs: At the Costerfield mine in Australia, gold equivalent production declined by 21% to 11,515 ounces due to lower head grades and reduced antimony output. Antimony production fell by 60% to 161 tonnes, largely attributable to ore sourced from the lower-grade Shepherd deposit. Cash operating costs per ounce rose by 45% to USD 1,133, while AISC increased by 55% to USD 1,555, due to higher tailings and water management costs and increased sustaining capital related to infill drilling. Despite the operational challenges, the mine generated USD 39.7 million in revenue and contributed USD 26.6 million in adjusted EBITDA, resulting in net income of USD 10.6 million.
Björkdal Mine: Marginal Production Gain Amid Cost Increase: The Björkdal mine in Sweden recorded a 4% increase in gold production, totaling 10,827 ounces in Q1 2025, supported by improved mining grades and plant performance. However, cash operating costs increased by 12% to USD 1,577 per ounce, while AISC rose 20% to USD 2,247 per ounce due to contractor-related expenses and the procurement of new equipment, including a cable bolter. Despite these cost escalations, the mine generated USD 38.4 million in revenue and USD 19.9 million in adjusted EBITDA, translating to net income of USD 11.4 million.
Strategic Positioning and Forward Outlook: Mandalay continues to invest in long-term asset stability and resource conversion, particularly through infill drilling at Costerfield and development initiatives at Björkdal. The company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance, anticipating stronger production in the second half of the year and lower capital expenditures following the commissioning of a new tailings facility. Management emphasized its ongoing commitment to disciplined capital deployment, liquidity preservation, and sustainable value creation for shareholders.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Speculative Buy’ recommendation has been given on Mandalay Resources Corporation (TSX: MND) at the closing market price of CAD 4.85, as on June 25, 2025.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Gold
| Company | Change (CAD) | Price (CAD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MND Mandalay Resources Corp |
-0.11 2.16% | 4.99 | 5.91 | 4.86 | 1.76 | 1.31 | 0.98 | 2.13 |
| NGT Newmont Goldcorp Corp |
-0.95 1.08% | 87.17 | 13.22 | 9.38 | 4.51 | 2.07 | 3.45 | 7.15 |
| AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited |
-1.51 0.87% | 172.32 | 25.63 | 19.27 | 9.33 | 2.85 | 6.92 | 11.93 |
| WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp |
-0.58 0.45% | 128.02 | 64.97 | 41.49 | 37.81 | 5.38 | 26.78 | 37.60 |
| ABX Barrick Gold Corp |
-0.12 0.41% | 29.50 | 15.66 | 11.20 | 3.66 | 1.49 | 2.78 | 5.07 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is Jun 25,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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