Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun, 25 | MRNA | Buy | USD 27.16 | USD 28.5 | USD 30.0 | 1 day | Closed |
9.89%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, autoimmune, and cardiovascular diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus, spikevax, and hMPV/PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, herpes simplex virus, varicella zoster virus, and human immunodeficiency virus vaccines; public health vaccines consists of Zika, Nipah, Mpox vaccines; and infectious diseases vaccines, such as lyme and norovirus vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; rare disease intracellular therapeutics; and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances and collaborations with AstraZeneca; Merck & Co., Inc; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Chiesi Farmaceutici S.p.A.; Metagenomi, Inc.; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; CytomX Therapeutics; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and OpenAI. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Cash Reserves: Moderna retains a robust liquidity position with USD 8.4 billion in cash and investments
Cost Reduction: Operating expenses were reduced by USD 275 million or 19% year-over-year in Q1 2025
Net Loss: Moderna posted a significant quarterly net loss of USD 971 million, though improved from Q1 2024
Revenue Decline: Total revenue dropped by USD 59 million, reflecting a 35% year-over-year decrease
Moderna’s near-term performance remains highly dependent on the successful regulatory approval and timely commercialization of its late-stage pipeline products, amid a challenging post-pandemic vaccine demand environment
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1 | Target 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.16 | 24.0 | 28.5 | 30.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
Financial Performance Overview: In the first quarter of 2025, Moderna Inc. reported total revenues of USD 108 million, marking a significant 35% decline from the USD 167 million recorded in Q1 2024. The decrease was primarily driven by a sharp 49% drop in net product sales, which fell from USD 167 million to USD 86 million. Despite this, the company demonstrated improved cost management, resulting in a 19% reduction in total operating expenses, down from USD 1.43 billion to USD 1.16 billion. Nevertheless, Moderna reported a net loss of USD 971 million for the quarter, reflecting a 17% improvement over the USD 1.18 billion net loss from the prior year.
Cost Control and Operational Efficiency: Moderna made notable strides in cost efficiency during the quarter. The company reduced R&D and SG&A expenses by 19% and 23% respectively, contributing to a total operating cost reduction of USD 275 million year-over-year. This strategic focus on leaner operations aligns with Moderna's broader goal to achieve cash breakeven by 2028 and reduce GAAP costs by USD 1.4 to USD 1.7 billion by 2027. Despite ongoing net losses, the company’s financial discipline has begun to yield measurable cost savings.
Pipeline Progress and Market Expansion: The company’s development pipeline advanced meaningfully during the quarter, with multiple product candidates in late-stage development. Moderna reported successful case accruals for its flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) Phase 3 study and continued expansion of its oncology portfolio, including Checkpoint AIM-T (mRNA-4359) and intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157). In terms of commercialization, approvals for mRESVIA® in Australia, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the UK marked a step toward broader global access.
Strategic Priorities and Growth Outlook: Moderna's strategic priorities remain centered on three pillars: expanding the reach of Spikevax and mRESVIA, achieving 10 product approvals across high-value markets, and executing significant cost reductions. With a total addressable market exceeding USD 30 billion, the company anticipates regulatory decisions on key respiratory vaccines in 2025 and 2026. While seasonality affected first-half revenue projections (~USD 200 million expected in H1 2025), a stronger second half is anticipated as the respiratory virus season unfolds.
Capital Position and Financial Flexibility: As of March 31, 2025, Moderna held USD 8.4 billion in cash and investments, down from USD 9.5 billion at the end of 2024. This 12% reduction reflects continued investment in pipeline development and operational restructuring. Nevertheless, the company maintains strong liquidity to support R&D initiatives, capital expenditures (~USD 0.4 billion forecasted for 2025), and strategic investments necessary for long-term growth.
Commercial Risks and Regulatory Dependencies: Moderna’s growth trajectory depends heavily on regulatory approvals and market adoption of its new therapies, particularly in competitive respiratory and oncology markets. Several filings—including mRNA-1083 (Flu + COVID for 50+), mRNA-1283 (Next-gen COVID), and mRNA-1345 (RSV 18-59 HR)—are subject to upcoming FDA decisions. Delays in regulatory review, especially the extended timeline for flu vaccine efficacy evaluation, could impact revenue realization and investor confidence.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on Moderna, Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) at the closing market price of USD 27.16, as on June 27, 2025.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Healthcare Industry: Biotechnology
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA Moderna Inc |
0.21 0.69% | 30.49 | - | 32.47 | 5.88 | 2.91 | 4.87 | -10.0256 |
| NVO Novo Nordisk A/S |
-0.65 0.93% | 69.17 | 41.58 | 31.15 | 2.13 | 32.99 | 2.11 | 4.70 |
| NONOF Novo Nordisk A/S |
- -% | 68.97 | 41.06 | 31.25 | 2.08 | 33.11 | 2.11 | 4.70 |
| VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc |
2.59 0.57% | 459.62 | 29.67 | 24.33 | 10.38 | 5.83 | 9.33 | 20.00 |
| REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc |
-0.38 0.07% | 547.36 | 29.07 | 20.12 | 7.57 | 3.82 | 6.95 | 19.42 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is Jun 27,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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