Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun, 25 | CEG | Buy | USD 322.45 | USD 340.0 | USD 355.0 | 24 days | Closed |
5.44%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Constellation Energy Corporation generates and sells electricity in the United States. It operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. The company sells natural gas, energy-related products, and sustainable solutions. It has approximately 33,094 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. It serves distribution utilities; municipalities; cooperatives; and commercial, industrial, governmental, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.
Robust Growth in Adjusted Operating Earnings: Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings increased from $1.82 to $2.14 per share, reflecting a 17.6% year-over-year improvement due to strong business fundamentals and effective operational execution
Enhanced Efficiency in Dispatch Operations: The dispatch match rate for the natural gas and pumped storage fleet rose to 99.2% from 97.9%, demonstrating improved responsiveness and utilization of dispatchable resources
Increased Refueling Outage Days in Nuclear Fleet: The number of planned refueling outage days rose to 88 (from 78 a year ago), slightly lowering short-term nuclear output and potentially elevating maintenance-related costs
Significant Decline in GAAP Net Income: GAAP Net Income fell sharply by 86.3%, from $2.78 to $0.38 per share, indicating the presence of non-operating or exceptional items adversely impacting profitability
Constellation's heavy reliance on nuclear generation and regulatory-driven clean energy initiatives exposes it to substantial operational, political, and compliance risks, particularly amid shifting policies or unfavorable market conditions
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 322.45 | 298.0 | 340.0 | 355.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Strong Financial Performance with Higher Adjusted Earnings: Constellation Energy Corporation reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, showcasing robust performance in adjusted earnings. The company achieved Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings of $2.14 per share, up from $1.82 per share in the same period last year, reflecting strong operational performance across its generation fleet. However, GAAP Net Income declined significantly to $0.38 per share from $2.78 per share in Q1 2024, primarily due to certain unfavorable impacts within the nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC) portfolio.
Affirmed Earnings Guidance for Full-Year 2025: The company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings guidance, maintaining the projected range between $8.90 and $9.60 per share. This reflects Constellation’s confidence in continued strong performance across its operations. CFO Dan Eggers emphasized the company’s consistent financial discipline and the resilient strength of its investment-grade balance sheet, which underpin its ability to navigate evolving market conditions.
Operational Excellence in Generation Assets: Constellation's power generation fleet demonstrated solid operational metrics in the first quarter. Its nuclear facilities, including ownership stakes in Salem and the South Texas Project (STP), generated 45,582 GWh, up from 45,391 GWh in Q1 2024. The company’s owned nuclear fleet achieved a 94.1% capacity factor, compared to 93.3% a year earlier. Natural gas and pumped storage assets achieved an impressive dispatch match rate of 99.2%, while renewables posted a stable energy capture rate of 96.2%.
Strategic Growth Through Calpine Acquisition: The company progressed on its strategic acquisition of Calpine, a key development to enhance its competitive positioning. The acquisition is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025 and will combine Constellation’s clean energy leadership with Calpine’s reliable natural gas portfolio. This move aims to support the growing demand for flexible, clean power, while also creating the nation's largest competitive retail electric supplier, serving 2.5 million customers.
Clean Energy Expansion and Infrastructure Progress: Constellation’s Crane Clean Energy Center was selected by PJM, the nation’s largest grid operator, for fast-track interconnection as part of a broader reliability initiative. This development supports restarting the Crane Unit 1 reactor, which will add significant emissions-free capacity to a tightening energy market. Additional uprate projects within Constellation’s fleet will collectively bring over 1,150 megawatts of firm clean power to the grid, contributing to national energy security.
Management Commentary and Outlook: CEO Joe Dominguez highlighted Constellation’s ongoing commitment to delivering reliable and clean energy, noting the company’s increasing role in powering AI-related energy demand across the country. He emphasized the company's partnerships with major technology firms and its alignment with national priorities for AI leadership and energy resilience. Management remains optimistic about securing new power agreements in the near future.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on Constellation Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: CEG) at the current market price of USD 322.45, as on June 30, 2025 at 09:30 AM PDT.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Utilities Industry: Utilities - Renewable
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG Constellation Energy Corp |
12.40 3.75% | 342.92 | 26.42 | 27.55 | 3.13 | 6.31 | 3.58 | 13.47 |
| OEZVF VERBUND AG |
- -% | 78.47 | 10.61 | 13.37 | 2.57 | 3.03 | 2.51 | 6.50 |
| OEZVY Verbund AG ADR |
- -% | 15.74 | 10.72 | 13.53 | 2.57 | 3.06 | 2.51 | 6.50 |
| DNNGY Orsted A/S ADR |
-0.23 1.43% | 15.88 | - | 25.91 | 0.23 | 2.02 | 0.31 | -8.6553 |
| DOGEF Orsted A/S |
- -% | 47.92 | - | 26.18 | 0.22 | 2.04 | 0.30 | -8.4027 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is Jun 30,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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