Recommendation: Speculative Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jun, 25 | RNW | Speculative Buy | USD 6.72 | USD 7.15 | USD 7.5 | 7 days | Closed |
14.14%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
ReNew Energy Global Plc generates power through non-conventional and renewable energy sources in India. The company operates through two segments: Wind Power and Solar Power. It develops, builds, owns, and operates utility scale wind and solar energy, hydro energy, and utility-scale firm power projects, as well as distributed solar energy projects that generate energy for commercial and industrial customers. The company provides engineering, procurement, and construction services; operation and maintenance services; consultancy services; and sells renewable energy certificates. ReNew Energy Global Plc was founded in 2011 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
Portfolio Expansion – Total renewable energy portfolio grew by ~5 GW YoY, reaching 18.5 GW including post-fiscal PPA signings
Q4 FY25 Net Profit Surge – Net profit jumped over 4x YoY to INR 3,137 million (US$ 37 million) from INR 609 million (US$ 7 million)
High Capital Recycling Dependency – Agreements to recycle ~US$260 million in capital indicate continued reliance on asset sales for liquidity and expansion funding.
Moderate Full-Year Profit Growth – Despite the Q4 surge, FY25 net profit rose only 11% YoY to INR 4,591 million (US$ 54 million) from INR 4,147 million (US$ 49 million)
ReNew’s heavy dependence on favorable weather conditions, capital recycling, and timely PPA execution poses execution and cash flow volatility risks that could impact its future earnings consistency
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1 | Target 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.72 | 6.2 | 7.15 | 7.5 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
Strong Profitability and Bottom-line Growth: ReNew Energy Global Plc recorded its second consecutive annual profit since listing, demonstrating continued operational efficiency and financial discipline. The company reported a substantial fourfold increase in its Q4 FY25 net profit, rising to INR 3,137 million (US$ 37 million) from INR 609 million (US$ 7 million) in Q4 FY24. On a full-year basis, net profit rose modestly to INR 4,591 million (US$ 54 million) in FY25 compared to INR 4,147 million (US$ 49 million) in FY24, reflecting stable performance despite capital recycling and expansionary activities.
Expanding Portfolio and Commissioned Capacity: As of March 31, 2025, ReNew’s total portfolio stood at approximately 17.3 GW, compared to 13.5 GW a year earlier. Post-fiscal year-end, the company secured additional power purchase agreements (PPAs) totaling ~1.2 GW, bringing the total portfolio size to 18.5 GW, including 1.1 GWh of battery energy storage systems (BESS). The commissioned capacity increased by 12.4% year-over-year to reach ~10.7 GW (net of 300 MW assets sold), further expanding to ~11.2 GW after commissioning 466 MW of new projects post-fiscal year-end.
Robust Revenue and Operating Margin Growth: ReNew’s revenue performance reflected strong business momentum. Total income for Q4 FY25 stood at INR 34,391 million (US$ 403 million), up from INR 24,776 million (US$ 290 million) in Q4 FY24. For FY25, total income reached INR 109,070 million (US$ 1,277 million), compared to INR 96,531 million (US$ 1,130 million) in FY24. Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 FY25 was INR 22,118 million (US$ 259 million), a rise from INR 16,810 million (US$ 197 million) a year earlier, while full-year Adjusted EBITDA increased to INR 79,188 million (US$ 927 million) from INR 69,216 million (US$ 810 million).
Manufacturing Segment Contributions: The manufacturing business significantly bolstered ReNew’s financials, contributing INR 9,914 million (US$ 116 million) to Q4 FY25 revenue from external sales, and INR 13,373 million (US$ 157 million) for FY25. This segment accounted for INR 2,623 million (US$ 31 million) in annual net profit and INR 4,212 million (US$ 49 million) in Adjusted EBITDA, underscoring the growing impact of backward integration through module and cell production.
Capital Recycling and Strategic Investments: The company signed agreements worth ~US$260 million to recycle capital, reinforcing its commitment to asset-light growth and optimal capital allocation. This initiative supports the company’s strategy to consistently monetize operational assets and redeploy proceeds into high-return development projects. Additionally, ReNew is on track to expand its manufacturing capacity to 6.5 GW each for modules and cells, solidifying its position in the solar supply chain.
FY26 Growth Outlook and Guidance: For FY26, ReNew expects to construct 1.6 to 2.4 GW of capacity. The company projects Adjusted EBITDA in the range of INR 87 to 93 billion and anticipates Cash Flow to Equity (CFe) between INR 14 and 17 billion. This guidance factors in stable weather conditions, anticipated asset sales (contributing INR 1–2 billion), and INR 5–7 billion in EBITDA from external manufacturing sales. These projections demonstrate the company’s confidence in its growth trajectory and ability to generate value from diversified revenue streams.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Speculative Buy’ recommendation has been given on ReNew Energy Global plc (NASDAQ: RNW) at the closing market price of USD 6.72, as on June 25, 2025.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Utilities Industry: Utilities - Renewable
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RNW Renew Energy Global PLC |
0.75 10.84% | 7.67 | 59.40 | 88.50 | 0.02 | 1.65 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| CEG Constellation Energy Corp |
5.25 1.71% | 311.88 | 26.42 | 27.55 | 3.13 | 6.31 | 3.58 | 13.47 |
| OEZVF VERBUND AG |
- -% | 76.69 | 10.61 | 13.37 | 2.57 | 3.03 | 2.51 | 6.50 |
| OEZVY Verbund AG ADR |
0.004 0.03% | 15.53 | 10.72 | 13.53 | 2.57 | 3.06 | 2.51 | 6.50 |
| DNNGY Orsted A/S ADR |
0.01 0.07% | 15.10 | - | 25.91 | 0.23 | 2.02 | 0.31 | -8.6553 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is Jun 25,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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