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Mosaic Co.

Recommendation: Buy

Entry Date Symbol Recommendation Entry Price (USD) Target 1 (USD) Target 2 (USD) Holding Duration Potential Upside
1 Jul, 24 0K3B Buy USD 27.96 USD 30.48 USD 32.71 16 days 17.0%

Fundamentals

  • Previous Close 23.90
  • Market Cap13884.94M
  • Volume2498
  • P/E Ratio0.05
  • Dividend Yield2.17%
  • EBITDA2793.80M
  • Revenue TTM15027.90M
  • Revenue Per Share TTM44.89
  • Gross Profit TTM 5777.10M
  • Diluted EPS TTM7.01

Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).

Company Overview

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name. The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

Key Positives

Enhanced Liquidity: Current Ratio of 1.16x in Q1FY24 vs 1.13x in Q1FY23

Lower Debt/Equity Ratio: 0.38x in Q1FY24 vs. Industry Median of 0.75x 

Key Negatives

Lower Current Ratio: 1.16x in Q1FY24 vs. Industry Median of 1.98x

Lower Gross Margins: 14.90% in Q1FY24 vs. Industry Median of 35.30%

Key Investment Risks

Lower Selling prices, Foreign currency transactions loss, Commodity prices volatility, Adjustment to environmental reserves etc.

Recommendation Summary

Technical Summary

Entry Price Support* Target 1 Target 2
27.96 24.33 30.48 32.71

Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt

*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.

Key Reasons for Buy

Financial: Net revenue was down by 26% YoY in Q1FY24 primarily due to lower selling prices. This led to lower gross margins of 14.90% in Q1FY24 as compared to 18.60% in Q1FY23.  

Technicals: The stock has witnessed a downside of ~ 21.7463 % in 6 months. The stock has a 52-week high and 52-week low of USD 42.81 and USD 26.67, respectively. 

Outlook: MOS expects their conversion and turnaround cost to remain high during Q2FY24 to support increasing production volumes. 

Given aforementioned factors, a 'Buy' recommendation has been assigned on the stock at the closing market price of USD 27.96 as on July 1, 2024. 

 

Key Financials in Pictures

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Change in Cash

Total Operating Cash

Dividends Paid

Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).

Peer Comparison

Sector: Industry:

Company Change (GBP) Price (GBP) Trailing PE (x) Forward PE (x) Price Sales TTM (x) Price to Book Value (x)
0K3B
Mosaic Co.
0.46 1.92% 24.36 0.05 - 0.0094 -
0RIH
Alphabet Inc Class A
- -% 190.80 - - - -
0M2Z
Equinor ASA
-0.2121 0.08% 255.49 - - - -
0VSO
BYD Co. Ltd.
-2.515 7.06% 33.09 - - - -
0QZI
Facebook Inc. Cl A
- -% 599.00 - - - -

Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).

Disclosures:

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. 

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is July 01, 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above. 

Note 4: The report publishing date is as per the Pacific Time Zone.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Disclaimer :
This report has been issued by StockNextt which has an Ontario Business Identification Number 1000958347 and British Columbia registration Number FM1051529 is a trade name under Kalkine Canada Advisory Services Inc. having Business Number 761925130BC0001. Kalkine Canada Advisory Services Inc. and StockNextt are collectively referred to as “StockNextt”, “we”, “us”, and “our”. The website https://stocknextt.com and associated pages are published by StockNextt. The information in this report and on the StockNextt website has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which StockNextt, to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. StcokNextt has made every effort to ensure the reliability of information contained in its reports, newsletters, and websites. All information represents our views at the date of publication and may change without notice. The information in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or other financial products or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other financial products. Our reports contain general recommendations for investing in securities and other financial products. StockNextt does not offer financial advice based upon your personal financial situation or goals, and we shall not be held liable for any investment or trading losses you may incur by using the opinions expressed in our reports, publications, market updates, news alerts and corporate profiles. StockNextt does not intend to exclude any liability which it is not permitted to exclude under applicable law or regulation. StockNextt’s general advice does not in any way endorse or recommend individuals, investment products or services for your personal financial situation. You should discuss your portfolios and the risk tolerance level appropriate for your personal financial situation, with a professional authorised financial planner and adviser. You should be aware that the value of any investment and the income from it can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount invested. Please also read our Terms and conditions for further information. Employees and/or associates of StockNextt and its related entities may hold an interest in the securities or other financial products covered in this report or on the StockNextt website. Any such employees and associates are required to comply with certain safeguards, procedures and disclosures as required by law.

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