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Valens

Recommendation: Speculative Buy

Entry Date Symbol Recommendation Entry Price (USD) Target 1 (USD) Target 2 (USD) Holding Duration Potential Upside
30 May, 24 VLN Speculative Buy USD 2.72 USD 3.0 USD 3.3 11 days 21.3%

Fundamentals

  • Previous Close 1.89
  • Market Cap250.00M
  • Volume310029
  • P/E Ratio-
  • Dividend Yield-%
  • EBITDA-31.72700M
  • Revenue TTM85.69M
  • Revenue Per Share TTM0.85
  • Gross Profit TTM 63.39M
  • Diluted EPS TTM-0.29

Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).

Company Overview

Valens Semiconductor Ltd. engages in the provision of semiconductor products that enables high-speed video and data transmission for the audio-video and automotive industries. It offers HDBaseT technology, which enables the simultaneous delivery of ultra-high-definition digital video and audio, Ethernet, USB, control signals, and power through a single long-reach cable. The company offers audio-video solutions for the enterprise, education, industrial, digital signage, medical, and residential markets. It also provides automotive chipsets that support advanced driver-assistance systems, automotive data solutions, infotainment, telematics, and backbone connectivity. The company has a collaboration with iCatch Technology to develop a 360-degree multi-camera videoconferencing solution. It operates in Israel, China, Hong Kong, the United States, Mexico, Japan, Hungary, and internationally. It has aValens Semiconductor Ltd. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Hod Hasharon, Israel.

Key Positives

Enhanced Liquidity: Current Ratio of 12.89x in Q1 FY24 vs Industry median of 3.41x

No Credit Risk: Debt-Free Company

Key Negatives

Lower Shareholder's Return: ROE of -6.2% in Q1 FY24 vs Industry Median of 2.0%

Reducing Revenues: Revenue of USD 11.56 mn in Q1 FY24 vs USD 23.88 mn in Q1 FY23

Key Investment Risks

Cyclicality of the Semiconductor Industry, Intensified Competition, Technological Risk, Dependency on Winning Selection Processes, Delayed Manufacturing Process, Cyberattacks, etc

Recommendation Summary

Technical Summary

Entry Price Support* Target 1 Target 2
2.72 2.1 3.0 3.3

Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt

*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.

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Key Reasons for Speculative Buy

  • Long-term Growth and Market Opportunities: Valens Semiconductor continues to invest in expanding its presence within multiple verticals of the audio-video market, leveraging the positive long-term trends and new additions to its portfolio, such as the VS6320 and VA7000 chipsets. These verticals, including video conferencing, industrial, and machine vision, represent a total addressable market of approximately USD 1 billion annually. Furthermore, the company identifies significant growth opportunities within the automotive industry, projecting a total addressable market of USD 4.5 billion annually by 2029, driven by technological innovations and diverse sector applications. 

 

  • Strategic Position and Industry Prospects: CEO Gideon Ben-Zvi emphasized Valens Semiconductor's progress in expanding collaborations and partnerships across various verticals, advancing high-performance connectivity solutions, and enhancing the visibility of its superior technology. One notable achievement this quarter was the growing interest in Valens' high-performance USB 3.0 extension solution, the VS6320. Since its launch in Q4 of the previous year, the VS6320 has been integrated into over 30 products, with multiple announcements and product launches anticipated at the InfoComm International trade show in June. This initial backlog is expected to drive increased sales in the second half of 2024. 

 

  • Financial Outlook: Valens Semiconductor does not provide GAAP net profit (loss) guidance due to the unpredictability of certain elements, such as share-based compensation expenses and warrant valuations. The company utilizes adjusted EBITDA as a non-GAAP measure to provide a clearer financial outlook. CFO Guy Nathanzon highlighted the ongoing macroeconomic challenges, including short lead times affecting order activity and inventory consumption. Despite these challenges, the company expects improved customer demand, projecting second quarter revenues between USD 12.5 million and USD 13.0 million. The gross margin is anticipated to range between 52.0% and 52.5%, with an adjusted EBITDA loss projected between USD 8.3 million and USD 8.0 million. 

 

Technical Observation (on the daily chart): 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) over a 14-day period stands upward trending with value of 68.38, with expectations of a consolidation or an upward momentum. Additionally, the stock's current positioning is above both the 50-period SMA and 200-period SMA, which may serve as dynamic short to medium-term support levels.  

 

As per the above-mentioned price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘Speculative Buy’ rating has been given to Valens Semiconductor Ltd (NYSE: VLN) at the current market price of USD 2.66 as of May 29, 2024, 07: 20 am PDT. 

 

 

Key Financials in Pictures

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Change in Cash

Total Operating Cash

Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).

Peer Comparison

Sector: Technology Industry: Semiconductors

Company Change (USD) Price (USD) Trailing PE (x) Forward PE (x) Price Sales TTM (x) Price to Book Value (x) Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x)
VLN
Valens
-0.065 3.44% 1.82 - - 2.88 1.56 1.24 -3.3547
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
3.35 2.60% 132.26 62.11 36.76 36.43 51.65 36.19 61.96
AVGO
Broadcom Inc
-2.05 0.92% 221.57 139.68 28.99 17.14 12.73 19.13 40.92
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
-0.26 0.13% 195.30 19.45 15.92 0.24 4.85 0.22 0.30
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices Inc
-1.64 1.35% 119.77 244.65 48.78 11.64 4.72 11.51 62.93

Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).

Disclosures:

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Related Risk: This report may be looked at from a high-risk perspective and a recommendation is provided for a short duration. This report is solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc. 

 

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is May 29, 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above. 

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level that the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenarios. 

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ Capital Markets (NASDAQ), and or REFINITIV. Typically, all sources (NYSE, NASDAQ, or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice. 

 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Disclaimer :
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