Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan, 26 | HBM | Buy | USD 22.54 | USD 23.67 | USD 25.0 | 8 days | Closed |
11.91%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Hudbay Minerals Inc., a diversified mining company, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the exploration, development, operation, and optimization of properties in North and South America. It produces copper concentrates containing copper, gold, and silver; zinc concentrates; zinc metal; and gold and silver doré and molybdenum concentrates. The company's flagship project is the 100% owned Constancia mine located in the Province of Chumbivilcas in southern Peru. It also holds 100% interest in the Lalor mine located near Snow Lake, Manitoba; the Copper World project located in Pima County, Arizona; and the Llaguen Project comprising 12 mining concessions covering an area of 8,900 hectares located in Trujillo, Peru. In addition, the company holds interests in Mason project located in Yerington District, Nevada, as well as operations in the mineral reserves and resources in Snow Lake regional deposits. Hudbay Minerals Inc. was and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Strategic Value Recognition from Growth Assets: During Q3 FY25, Hudbay recorded a USD 322.3 million impairment reversal related to the Copper World project, validating the long-term economic potential of the asset
Effective Operating Cost Control: Q3 FY25 cost of sales decreased to USD 281.5 million, down from Q3 FY24 cost of sales of USD 346.0 million
Lower Copper Production Volumes: Q3 FY25 copper production totaled 24,205 tonnes, a decline from Q3 FY24 production of 31,354 tonnes
Decline in Quarterly Revenue: Q3 FY25 revenue declined to USD 346.8 million, compared with Q3 FY24 revenue of USD 485.8 million
Hudbay’s investment profile remains exposed to operational disruption risks and commodity price volatility, as temporary shutdowns, shipment delays, and reliance on non-recurring valuation gains can materially impact near-term earnings and cash flow stability
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.54 | 20.0 | 23.67 | 25.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Revenue Performance and Top-Line Trends: During Q3 FY25, Hudbay reported revenue of USD 346.8 million, a decline from USD 485.8 million in Q3 FY24, reflecting lower payable metal sales volumes due to temporary operational disruptions and shipment deferrals, particularly in Peru. Despite stronger realized metal prices, the timing of concentrate shipments and production interruptions weighed on reported revenue for the quarter.
Operating Cost Structure and Margin Evolution: Cost of sales declined to USD 281.5 million in Q3 FY25 from USD 346.0 million in Q3 FY24, driven by lower depreciation and improved cost discipline across operations. Consolidated cash costs remained competitive, although margins narrowed at the gross level as lower sales volumes more than offset cost efficiencies, resulting in gross profit of USD 65.3 million, compared with USD 139.8 million in the prior-year quarter.
Earnings Performance and Profitability: Net income for Q3 FY25 increased sharply to USD 222.4 million, compared with USD 50.3 million in Q3 FY24, primarily due to a USD 322.3 million pre-tax impairment reversal related to the Copper World project. Excluding this non-cash item, underlying earnings reflected pressure from lower production and delayed shipments, indicating that the headline profitability overstates core operating performance.
Operational Output and Production Dynamics: Operationally, Hudbay produced 24,205 tonnes of copper and 53,581 ounces of gold in Q3 FY25, both lower than Q3 FY24, mainly due to wildfire-related shutdowns in Manitoba and temporary interruptions in Peru. Nevertheless, the company demonstrated resilience by maintaining production continuity at its diversified asset base and reaffirming full-year production guidance, albeit toward the lower end of the range.
Cash Flow Generation and Liquidity Position: Cash generated from operating activities declined to USD 113.5 million in Q3 FY25, down from USD 148.1 million in Q3 FY24, reflecting reduced sales volumes and shipment delays. However, Hudbay ended the quarter with a strong liquidity position, holding USD 611.1 million in cash and cash equivalents, providing financial flexibility to manage near-term volatility and support ongoing capital programs.
Balance Sheet Strength and Capital Structure: Hudbay continued to strengthen its balance sheet during Q3 FY25, reducing net debt to USD 435.9 million from USD 625.6 million in Q3 FY24. The net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 0.5x, highlighting effective deleveraging through disciplined capital allocation, debt repurchases, and strong cumulative cash generation.
Strategic Developments and Growth Optionality: Strategically, Hudbay advanced its Copper World project through a joint venture agreement with Mitsubishi, significantly enhancing project economics and reducing future capital burden. This development underpinned the impairment reversal recorded in the quarter and reinforced the company’s long-term growth profile, although near-term earnings remain sensitive to operational execution.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on Hudbay Minerals Inc (NYSE: HBM) at the closing market price of USD 22.54, as on Jan 12, 2026.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Copper
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBM Hudbay Minerals Inc. |
-0.58 2.06% | 27.59 | 112.00 | 6.27 | 1.39 | 0.92 | 2.21 | 6.50 |
| FCX Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc |
-0.38 0.55% | 68.68 | 45.97 | 26.53 | 3.75 | 5.14 | 4.00 | 11.55 |
| SCCO Southern Copper Corporation |
1.25 0.65% | 192.93 | 23.55 | 50.25 | 6.18 | 8.31 | 6.64 | 12.17 |
| CYPMF Cyprium Metals Limited |
- -% | 0.26 | - | - | 6604.46 | 1.55 | -2.1699 | |
| ANFGF Antofagasta PLC |
- -% | 55.80 | 39.93 | 33.33 | 6.16 | 4.90 | 6.08 | 10.04 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on January 13, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
Disclaimer :
This report has been issued by StockNextt which has an Ontario Business Identification Number 1000958347 and British Columbia registration Number FM1051529 is a trade name under Kalkine Canada Advisory Services Inc. having Business Number 761925130BC0001. Kalkine Canada Advisory Services Inc. and StockNextt are collectively referred to as “StockNextt”, “we”, “us”, and “our”. The website https://stocknextt.com and associated pages are published by StockNextt. The information in this report and on the StockNextt website has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which StockNextt, to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. StcokNextt has made every effort to ensure the reliability of information contained in its reports, newsletters, and websites. All information represents our views at the date of publication and may change without notice. The information in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or other financial products or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other financial products. Our reports contain general recommendations for investing in securities and other financial products. StockNextt does not offer financial advice based upon your personal financial situation or goals, and we shall not be held liable for any investment or trading losses you may incur by using the opinions expressed in our reports, publications, market updates, news alerts and corporate profiles. StockNextt does not intend to exclude any liability which it is not permitted to exclude under applicable law or regulation. StockNextt’s general advice does not in any way endorse or recommend individuals, investment products or services for your personal financial situation. You should discuss your portfolios and the risk tolerance level appropriate for your personal financial situation, with a professional authorised financial planner and adviser. You should be aware that the value of any investment and the income from it can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount invested. Please also read our Terms and conditions for further information. Employees and/or associates of StockNextt and its related entities may hold an interest in the securities or other financial products covered in this report or on the StockNextt website. Any such employees and associates are required to comply with certain safeguards, procedures and disclosures as required by law.
Copyright © 2026 Krish Capital Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this website, or its content, may be reproduced in any form without our prior consent.
Australia