Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan, 26 | AA | Buy | USD 61.11 | USD 64.4 | USD 70.0 | 70 days | Closed |
15.12%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Iceland, Norway, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. It engages in bauxite mining operations; and processes bauxite into alumina and sells it to customers who process it into industrial chemical products, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company offers primary aluminum in the form of alloy ingot or value-add ingot to customers that produce products for the transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it owns hydro power plants that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in October 2016. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Earnings Per Share Expansion: In Q3 FY25, earnings per share increased to USD 0.88, compared with USD 0.38 in Q3 FY24
Strong Improvement in Reported Profitability: In Q3 FY25, Alcoa reported net income attributable to the Company of USD 232 million, a substantial increase from USD 90 million in Q3 FY24,
Elevated Restructuring and Closure Costs: In Q3 FY25, restructuring and related charges surged to USD 895 million, compared with USD 30 million in Q3 FY24
Deterioration in Underlying Adjusted Earnings: In Q3 FY25, Alcoa reported an adjusted net loss of USD 6 million, versus adjusted net income of USD 135 million in Q3 FY24
Alcoa’s earnings and cash flow remain highly sensitive to volatility in global alumina and aluminum prices, elevated energy and tariff costs, and regulatory risks associated with mining approvals and environmental obligations across its global operating footprint
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61.11 | 54.75 | 64.4 | 70.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Revenue Performance and Market Conditions: During Q3 FY25, Alcoa Corporation reported consolidated revenue of USD 2,995 million, reflecting a 3.1% year-on-year increase from USD 2,904 million in Q3 FY24. The improvement was supported by higher realized aluminum prices and increased production volumes, partially offset by lower alumina pricing and reduced third-party shipments in select markets amid softer global alumina fundamentals.
Profitability and Earnings Profile: Net income attributable to Alcoa increased significantly to USD 232 million in Q3 FY25, compared with USD 90 million in Q3 FY24, driven primarily by one-time gains, including the sale of its interest in the Ma’aden joint venture. Earnings per share rose to USD 0.88, more than double the prior-year level of USD 0.38, underscoring the impact of portfolio optimization actions during the quarter.
Adjusted Performance and Margin Trends: On an adjusted basis, excluding special items, the Company reported an adjusted net loss of USD 6 million, compared with adjusted net income of USD 135 million in Q3 FY24. Adjusted EBITDA declined to USD 270 million, down from USD 455 million in the prior-year quarter, primarily reflecting lower alumina prices, higher tariff costs on aluminum imports, and unfavorable currency movements.
Operational Execution and Production Metrics: Operationally, Alcoa delivered strong execution, achieving year-to-date production records at five aluminum smelters across North America, Europe, and Australia. Alumina production increased 4% sequentially to 2.5 million metric tons, while aluminum production rose 1% sequentially to 579,000 metric tons, supported by improved plant stability and progress on the San Ciprián smelter restart.
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Strength: The Company ended Q3 FY25 with a robust cash balance of USD 1.5 billion, supported by disciplined capital allocation and proceeds from asset divestments. Cash generated from operations totaled USD 85 million, while Alcoa fully repaid a USD 74 million term loan, reinforcing balance sheet resilience and progress toward its targeted adjusted net debt range.
Strategic Actions and Portfolio Optimization: During the quarter, Alcoa announced the permanent closure of the Kwinana refinery in Australia, reflecting a strategic decision to optimize its asset portfolio amid challenging alumina economics. Concurrently, the Company advanced a long-term energy agreement for the Massena smelter and progressed government-supported development of a gallium project at the Wagerup refinery, strengthening long-term competitiveness and strategic relevance.
Outlook and Management Focus: Management reiterated its focus on safety, operational stability, and continuous improvement heading into Q4 FY25. With expectations of higher shipments, working capital release, and easing one-time cost pressures, Alcoa aims to enhance profitability while advancing regulatory approvals for its Australian mining operations.
Technical Commentary: AA’s stock has established strong support at lower price levels and is beginning to trend upward, reflecting increasing investor confidence and the potential for a short-term rally. The 14-period RSI has crossed above the midpoint, further confirming a positive bias. Moreover, the stock has regained its 21-period and 50-period simple moving averages, which act as important technical support levels and enhance the bullish outlook. Overall, these indicators indicate improving bullish momentum, and if the current trend persists, the stock could see further gains in the near future.
As per the above-mentioned price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘Buy’ rating has been given to Alcoa Corp. (NYSE: AA) at its current market price of USD 61.11 as of January 20, 2026 (13:40 EST).
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Aluminum
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA Alcoa Corp |
-2.36 3.82% | 59.37 | - | 12.02 | 0.52 | 1.21 | 0.60 | -244.3909 |
| CHHQY China Hongqiao Group Limited |
- -% | 36.48 | 14.33 | 9.45 | 0.32 | 2.56 | 2.06 | 9.15 |
| ALMMF Aluminum Corporation of China Limited |
- -% | 1.15 | 14.73 | 11.48 | 0.12 | 2.47 | 0.97 | 6.02 |
| CHHQF China Hongqiao Group Limited |
- -% | 3.25 | - | 5.91 | 0.11 | 1.14 | 0.96 | 4.62 |
| NHYKF Norsk Hydro ASA |
- -% | 10.51 | 21.31 | 12.71 | 0.07 | 1.29 | 0.08 | 0.65 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on January 20, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
Disclaimer :
This report has been issued by StockNextt which has an Ontario Business Identification Number 1000958347 and British Columbia registration Number FM1051529 is a trade name under Kalkine Canada Advisory Services Inc. having Business Number 761925130BC0001. Kalkine Canada Advisory Services Inc. and StockNextt are collectively referred to as “StockNextt”, “we”, “us”, and “our”. The website https://stocknextt.com and associated pages are published by StockNextt. The information in this report and on the StockNextt website has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which StockNextt, to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. StcokNextt has made every effort to ensure the reliability of information contained in its reports, newsletters, and websites. All information represents our views at the date of publication and may change without notice. The information in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or other financial products or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other financial products. Our reports contain general recommendations for investing in securities and other financial products. StockNextt does not offer financial advice based upon your personal financial situation or goals, and we shall not be held liable for any investment or trading losses you may incur by using the opinions expressed in our reports, publications, market updates, news alerts and corporate profiles. StockNextt does not intend to exclude any liability which it is not permitted to exclude under applicable law or regulation. StockNextt’s general advice does not in any way endorse or recommend individuals, investment products or services for your personal financial situation. You should discuss your portfolios and the risk tolerance level appropriate for your personal financial situation, with a professional authorised financial planner and adviser. You should be aware that the value of any investment and the income from it can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount invested. Please also read our Terms and conditions for further information. Employees and/or associates of StockNextt and its related entities may hold an interest in the securities or other financial products covered in this report or on the StockNextt website. Any such employees and associates are required to comply with certain safeguards, procedures and disclosures as required by law.
Copyright © 2026 Krish Capital Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this website, or its content, may be reproduced in any form without our prior consent.
Australia