Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb, 26 | ERO | Buy | USD 34.25 | USD 36.0 | USD 38.0 | 4 days | Closed |
10.95%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Ero Copper Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. Its flagship asset includes Caraíba operations that comprise the production and sale of copper concentrates located in Bahia State, Brazil, as well as gold and silver produced and sold as by-products. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Strengthened Operating Cash Flow Generation: Cash flow from operations more than doubled to USD 110.3 million in Q3 FY25 from USD 52.7 million in Q3 FY24
Material Expansion in Copper Production Volumes: During Q3 FY25, Ero Copper achieved a substantial scale-up in consolidated copper output, with production rising to 16,664 tonnes compared with 10,759 tonnes in Q3 FY24
Moderation in Net Income Despite Revenue Growth: Net income declined modestly to USD 36.5 million in Q3 FY25 from USD 41.4 million in Q3 FY24
Decline in Gold Production During Mining Transition: Gold output at the Xavantina Operations decreased to 9,073 ounces in Q3 FY25 from 13,485 ounces in Q3 FY24
Ero Copper’s earnings profile remains highly sensitive to copper price volatility and operational execution at Tucumã, where sustained throughput improvements must offset rising unit costs and grade variability to preserve margins
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34.25 | 30.5 | 36.0 | 38.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Record Consolidated Copper Output Driven by Tucumã Ramp-Up: Ero Copper delivered a step-change in operational scale during Q3 FY25, with consolidated copper production rising to 16,664 tonnes, up sharply from 10,759 tonnes in Q3 FY24, reflecting the successful ramp-up of the Tucumã Operation alongside steady performance at Caraíba. This translated into materially higher concentrate sales volumes and improved production diversification across assets.
Throughput Expansion and Processing Efficiency Gains: At the Caraíba Operations, ore processed increased to 996,661 tonnes in Q3 FY25 from 900,289 tonnes in Q3 FY24, supported by a multi-quarter plant debottlenecking program that enabled record mill throughput. Meanwhile, Tucumã’s processed ore surged to 575,041 tonnes from 110,778 tonnes, underscoring the operational transition into commercial production.
Revenue Growth Reflecting Higher Volumes and Stronger Metal Prices: The operational expansion translated directly into top-line acceleration, with quarterly revenues increasing to USD 177.1 million in Q3 FY25 from USD 124.8 million in Q3 FY24, supported by higher copper concentrate sales and improving copper and gold pricing toward quarter-end. This marked a substantial strengthening of the Company’s earnings base.
EBITDA Expansion Demonstrating Operating Leverage: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose to USD 90.8 million in Q3 FY25, compared with USD 74.5 million in Q3 FY24, highlighting the operating leverage embedded in the asset portfolio as incremental production volumes flowed through a largely fixed-cost infrastructure base.
Gold Output Moderation During Mining Transition Phase: Gold production at the Xavantina Operations declined to 9,073 ounces in Q3 FY25 from 13,485 ounces in Q3 FY24, as the site progressed through its transition from manual to mechanized mining. While throughput improved sequentially, processed grades were lower year-on-year, temporarily pressuring precious metal output.
Cost Inflation Linked to Grade Profile and Commercial Start-Up Effects: Copper C1 cash costs at Caraíba increased to USD 2.32 per pound in Q3 FY25 from USD 1.63 per pound in Q3 FY24, primarily due to lower planned mined grades and higher unit costs. Additionally, Tucumã’s declaration of commercial production resulted in higher operating expenses as ramp-up costs ceased to be capitalized.
Solid Profitability Despite Cost and Grade Headwinds: Net income for the quarter totaled USD 36.5 million in Q3 FY25, modestly below USD 41.4 million in Q3 FY24, as higher production and revenues were partially offset by cost escalation and softer gold output. Nonetheless, the Company maintained strong profitability and cash generation.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on Ero Copper Corp. (NYSE: ERO) at the current market price of USD 34.25, as on Feb 02, 2026 at 8:41 am PST.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Copper
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERO Ero Copper Corp |
-0.68 2.23% | 29.75 | 11.22 | 7.58 | 3.77 | 3.23 | 4.51 | 7.67 |
| FCX Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc |
-0.38 0.55% | 68.68 | 45.97 | 26.53 | 3.75 | 5.14 | 4.00 | 11.55 |
| SCCO Southern Copper Corporation |
1.25 0.65% | 192.93 | 23.55 | 50.25 | 6.18 | 8.31 | 6.64 | 12.17 |
| CYPMF Cyprium Metals Limited |
- -% | 0.26 | - | - | 6604.46 | 1.55 | -2.1699 | |
| ANFGF Antofagasta PLC |
- -% | 55.80 | 39.93 | 33.33 | 6.16 | 4.90 | 6.08 | 10.04 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on February 2, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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