Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Feb, 26 | CEG | Buy | USD 292.63 | USD 308.0 | USD 325.0 | 1 day | Closed |
5.25%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Constellation Energy Corporation produces and sells energy products and services in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. It offers electricity, natural gas, energy-related products, and sustainable solutions. The company has approximately 31,676 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. It serves distribution utilities, municipalities, cooperatives, and commercial, industrial, public sector, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.
Improved Nuclear Generation: Total nuclear output rose to 46,477 GWh in Q3 FY2025, up from 45,510 GWh in Q3 FY2024, demonstrating a 967 GWh increase
Higher Adjusted Earnings Growth: In Q3 FY2025, Adjusted Operating EPS increased to USD 3.04, compared to USD 2.74 in Q3 FY2024, reflecting a 10.9% year-over-year improvement
Lower Operating Income: Operating income decreased to USD 1,086 million in Q3 FY2025, from USD 1,467 million in Q3 FY2024
Decline in GAAP EPS: In Q3 FY2025, GAAP EPS declined to USD 2.97, compared with USD 3.82 in Q3 FY2024
Constellation remains exposed to commodity price volatility, regulatory and policy risks surrounding nuclear production tax credits, and integration risks associated with the pending Calpine acquisition, which may materially impact earnings stability and capital structure flexibility
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 292.63 | 260.0 | 308.0 | 325.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Earnings Performance and Profitability Trends: During Q3 FY2025, Constellation reported GAAP net income of USD 2.97 per share, compared to USD 3.82 per share in Q3 FY2024, reflecting a year-over-year decline driven largely by mark-to-market adjustments and non-operating items. However, Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings improved to USD 3.04 per share in Q3 FY2025 from USD 2.74 per share in Q3 FY2024, indicating stronger core operational performance. This divergence highlights the resilience of underlying operations despite volatility in fair value adjustments and decommissioning-related activities.
Revenue and Operating Income Dynamics: Operating revenues increased marginally to USD 6,570 million in Q3 FY2025, compared with USD 6,550 million in Q3 FY2024. Despite this stability in revenues, operating income declined to USD 1,086 million in Q3 FY2025 from USD 1,467 million in Q3 FY2024, reflecting higher purchased power and fuel costs alongside fair value movements. Purchased power and fuel expenses rose to USD 3,567 million in Q3 FY2025, up from USD 3,119 million in Q3 FY2024, exerting margin pressure.
Nuclear Fleet Operational Excellence: Operationally, Constellation demonstrated improved nuclear fleet performance. Total nuclear generation increased to 46,477 GWh in Q3 FY2025, compared with 45,510 GWh in Q3 FY2024. Capacity factor improved to 96.8% in Q3 FY2025 from 95.0% in Q3 FY2024, supported by fewer planned and unplanned outage days. Planned refueling outage days declined to 23 days in Q3 FY2025 versus 37 days in Q3 FY2024, while non-refueling outage days reduced significantly to 5 days from 20 days year-over-year. This operational efficiency directly contributed to the growth in adjusted earnings.
Natural Gas and Renewables Performance: The dispatch match rate for gas and pumped storage assets declined to 95.5% in Q3 FY2025 from 98.2% in Q3 FY2024, indicating slightly lower operational alignment with market dispatch. Conversely, renewable energy capture improved to 96.8% in Q3 FY2025 from 96.0% in Q3 FY2024, reflecting enhanced performance across wind, solar, and hydro assets. This mixed operational trend suggests relative strength in renewable assets compared to gas operations.
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Position: Net cash flows from operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 improved significantly to USD 3,432 million, compared to USD (1,448) million in the prior-year period, demonstrating stronger liquidity generation. Total assets increased to USD 56,161 million as of September 30, 2025, up from USD 52,926 million at December 31, 2024, supported by growth in nuclear decommissioning trust funds and property, plant, and equipment. However, current liabilities rose to USD 7,455 million from USD 6,846 million, partially reflecting short-term borrowings.
Strategic Developments and Forward Outlook: During the quarter, Constellation secured water quality certification for the Conowingo Dam, enabling continued hydroelectric operations. Additionally, the company narrowed its full-year FY2025 Adjusted Operating Earnings guidance to USD 9.05–USD 9.45 per share, signaling improved visibility and operational confidence. The proposed Calpine acquisition remains on track, potentially strengthening diversification and generation capabilities.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given to Constellation Energy. (NASDAQ: CEG) at the current market price of USD 292.63, as on Feb 17, 2026 at 7:01 am PST
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Utilities Industry: Utilities - Independent Power Producers
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG Constellation Energy Corp |
6.89 2.58% | 274.06 | 37.58 | 25.19 | 3.94 | 7.18 | 4.29 | 18.38 |
| UNPRF Uniper SE |
- -% | 55.20 | 0.05 | 4.91 | 0.28 | 2.51 | 0.17 | 0.52 |
| CGNWF CGN Power Co. Ltd |
- -% | 0.35 | 11.83 | 11.48 | 0.24 | 1.06 | 4.46 | 15.22 |
| HUNGF Huaneng Power International Inc |
- -% | 0.95 | 8.83 | 14.03 | 0.06 | 0.43 | 0.21 | 2.53 |
| VST Vistra Corp. |
4.92 3.10% | 163.75 | 11.25 | 9.48 | 0.87 | 3.84 | 1.69 | 6.07 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on February 17, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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